---
title: "Premium fuel case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Premium fuel ($9.98) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.95% from 42 items with odds, observed 123.84% over 327 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Premium fuel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Premium fuel

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel?window=all)

Price · $9.98

Advertised RTP · 93.95% · EV $9.38 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 123.84% · 327 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 45 openings · below min

7 days · 119.92% ±17.44 298 openings

30 days · 123.84% ±16.62 327 openings

since tracking started · 123.84% ±16.62 327 openings

44.0% 92.5% 141.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 93.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (107.21% – 140.46%, 327 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel?window=24h) | 45 | 89.49% ±45.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel?window=7d) | 298 | 119.92% ±17.4 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel) | 327 | 123.84% ±16.6 | +3.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/premium-fuel?window=all) | 327 | 123.84% ±16.6 | +3.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 327 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,290 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,286 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,712 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,399 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,252 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,729 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,284 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,110 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-well-worn) | 1 in 166,667 | $798 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $459 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45,455 | $420 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $409 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 32,258 | $359 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13,699 | $271 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,989 | $192 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-big-swell-field-tested) | 1 in 5,618 | $181 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-well-worn) | 1 in 2,151 | $125 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-field-tested) | 1 in 1,215 | $99.73 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-well-worn) | 1 in 502 | $67.67 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-well-worn) | 1 in 296 | $58.74 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) | 1 in 306 | $55.69 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $42.25 | 3.5% | 7 | 2.5 | 2.75× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $39.19 | 3.8% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $38.65 | 3.4% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $30.11 | 4.1% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $27.40 | 4.5% | 2 | 5.1 | 0.39× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $20.78 | 5.0% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.09× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $20.18 | 4.9% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $19.94 | 5.1% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $14.24 | 5.6% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $13.73 | 6.6% | 17 | 14.7 | 1.16× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $12.79 | 7.2% | 27 | 17.2 | 1.57× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $7.50 | 5.9% | 22 | 24.1 | 0.91× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $7.15 | 5.6% | 26 | 24.1 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.60 | 5.2% | 28 | 24.0 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $6.53 | 5.1% | 21 | 24.0 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.78 | 4.5% | 21 | 24.0 | 0.87× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $4.46 | 3.5% | 17 | 24.0 | 0.71× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.09 | 3.2% | 19 | 24.0 | 0.79× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $4.04 | 3.2% | 22 | 24.0 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $1.15 | 0.9% | 27 | 23.8 | 1.14× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.12 | 0.9% | 27 | 23.8 | 1.14× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/premium_fuel/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $798 79.97x 2026-11-08 16:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=premium-fuel)

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $1.15 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $1.15 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $7.15 0.72x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $1.12 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $12.79 1.28x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $12.79 1.28x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $1.12 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $4.09 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $7.15 0.72x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $9.98 $1.12 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $9.98 | 93.95% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.23 | 91.65% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.23 | 93.56% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% classified 12.8% sunny 0.0% epic 0.1% restricted 0.0% covert knife 0.8% rare 4.1% #d32ee6 7.4% red 1.6% pink 17.2% Ancient 1.5% Legendary 2.3% #d32ce6 18.3% uncommon 11.8% Classified 14.7% blue 7.3% best hit $798 (79.97x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.95 on average: an expected loss of $6.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt