---
title: "Prisma case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Prisma ($3.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.09% from 36 items with odds, observed 102.81% over 474 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Prisma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Prisma

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma?window=all)

Price · $3.49

Advertised RTP · 91.09% · EV $3.18 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 102.81% · 474 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 474 openings · below min

30 days · 474 openings · below min

since tracking started · 474 openings · below min

-0.5% 81.3% 163.0%

**Small sample.** 474 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma?window=24h) | 3 | 18.91% ±143.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma?window=7d) | 474 | 102.81% ±17.5 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma) | 474 | 102.81% ±17.5 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma?window=all) | 474 | 102.81% ±17.5 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 474 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $532 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $364 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 83,333 | $232 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 45,455 | $167 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 17,857 | $111 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,407 | $79.12 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 2,262 | $56.21 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 2,558 | $53.91 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 1,634 | $45.68 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,412 | $43.10 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 716 | $33.98 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 569 | $29.06 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 568 | $28.59 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $14.29 | 4.6% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $13.74 | 4.8% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $7.50 | 7.5% | 17 | 15.0 | 1.14× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $6.39 | 8.7% | 19 | 20.6 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $6.01 | 8.7% | 31 | 21.9 | 1.42× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $5.88 | 8.7% | 28 | 22.2 | 1.26× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $5.05 | 8.2% | 18 | 24.5 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.26 | 10.6% | 44 | 37.5 | 1.17× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.84 | 4.0% | 23 | 21.3 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.50 | 3.5% | 16 | 21.3 | 0.75× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.26 | 3.2% | 22 | 21.3 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Mischief (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.02 | 2.8% | 19 | 21.3 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.74 | 2.5% | 21 | 21.3 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.44 | 2.0% | 17 | 21.3 | 0.80× |
| [Galil AR \| Akoben (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.33 | 1.9% | 20 | 21.3 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.18 | 1.7% | 22 | 21.3 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.06 | 1.5% | 26 | 21.3 | 1.22× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.05 | 1.5% | 18 | 21.3 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Crypsis (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.90 | 1.3% | 20 | 21.3 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.85 | 1.2% | 10 | 21.3 | 0.47× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.66 | 0.9% | 26 | 21.3 | 1.22× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.58 | 0.8% | 21 | 21.3 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.46 | 0.6% | 24 | 21.3 | 1.13× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/prisma/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=prisma)

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $3.49 $0.66 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $3.49 $0.66 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:15 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $3.49 $0.66 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) [Засадюк Алексей Александрович](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%97%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%B4%D1%8E%D0%BA%20%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87) $3.49 $2.50 0.72x 2026-11-08 14:17 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) [Mr.Legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Legenda) $3.49 $14.29 4.09x 2026-11-08 10:45 UTC

[MAC-10 | Whitefish (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-factory-new) [Mr.Legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Legenda) $3.49 $2.26 0.65x 2026-11-08 10:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) [Mr.Legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Legenda) $3.49 $1.74 0.50x 2026-11-08 10:45 UTC

[MP5-SD | Gauss (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-minimal-wear) [Mr.Legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Legenda) $3.49 $1.05 0.30x 2026-11-08 10:45 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [Mr.Legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Legenda) $3.49 $4.26 1.22x 2026-11-08 10:45 UTC

[Galil AR | Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-minimal-wear) [Mr.Legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Legenda) $3.49 $0.46 0.13x 2026-11-08 10:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $3.49 | 91.09% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% Covert 0.0% covert 0.2% gold 0.1% classified 15.1% restricted 48.8% mil spec 31.4% Rare 4.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.09 on average: an expected loss of $8.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt