--- title: "Prisma 2 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Prisma 2 ($3.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.21% from 36 items with odds, observed 90.74% over 87 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Prisma 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Prisma 2 A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2?window=all) Price · $3.99 Advertised RTP · 93.21% · EV $3.72 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.74% · 87 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 87 openings · below min 30 days · 87 openings · below min since tracking started · 87 openings · below min 73.5% 90.8% 108.0% **Small sample.** 87 openings and 23.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2?window=7d) | 87 | 90.74% ±16.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2) | 87 | 90.74% ±16.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prisma2?window=all) | 87 | 90.74% ±16.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $604 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $406 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $283 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $203 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $137 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $91.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 12,195 | $56.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 10,101 | $54.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,475 | $51.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 6,711 | $45.68 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 5,525 | $43.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,795 | $33.48 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 258 | $18.39 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 1 in 124 | $13.59 | 2.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $8.45 | 5.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $7.56 | 7.1% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.89 | 9.2% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $5.98 | 11.4% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $5.86 | 11.2% | 4 | 8.5 | 0.47× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $5.60 | 10.8% | 16 | 8.6 | 1.87× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $5.54 | 10.6% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.17× | | [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.59 | 3.8% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.29 | 3.5% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.84× | | [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.24 | 3.4% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.05× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.01 | 3.2% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.05× | | [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.69 | 2.9% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.63× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.87 | 2.0% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.05× | | [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.28 | 1.4% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.63× | | [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.27 | 1.3% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.48× | | [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.23 | 1.3% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.63× | | [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.08 | 1.1% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.84× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.98 | 1.0% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.69× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.78 | 0.8% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.84× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.67 | 0.7% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.05× | | [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.60 | 0.6% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.84× | | [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.56 | 0.6% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.48× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/prisma2/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=prisma2) [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) [Polughoul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Polughoul) $3.99 $5.54 1.39x 2026-11-08 01:07 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) [Планокур](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%80) $3.99 $0.98 0.25x 2026-11-07 21:44 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) [Планокур](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%80) $3.99 $5.60 1.40x 2026-11-07 21:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $3.99 $0.98 0.25x 2026-11-07 19:09 UTC [P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $3.99 $0.60 0.15x 2026-11-07 13:57 UTC [SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $3.99 $1.27 0.32x 2026-11-07 13:57 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $3.99 $5.60 1.40x 2026-11-07 13:57 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $3.99 $3.01 0.75x 2026-11-07 13:57 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $3.99 $0.67 0.17x 2026-11-07 13:57 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $3.99 $1.87 0.47x 2026-11-07 13:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $3.99 | 93.21% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.99 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 3 4.0% covert 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 16.8% restricted 26.2% #d32ee6 7.1% Legendary 7.1% #4b69ff 11.1% mil spec 4.0% violet 4.0% Mythical 11.8% #8847ff 4.0% Rare 4.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.21 on average: an expected loss of $6.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt