---
title: "Prompt case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Prompt ($0.46) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.56% from 21 items with odds, observed 94.12% over 5,888 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Prompt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Prompt

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt?window=all)

Price · $0.46

Advertised RTP · 92.56% · EV $0.43 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.12% · 5,888 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 88.97% ±5.00 2,357 openings

30 days · 94.12% ±3.19 5,888 openings

since tracking started · 94.12% ±3.19 5,888 openings

83.5% 90.8% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt?window=7d) | 2,357 | 88.97% ±5.00 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt) | 5,888 | 94.12% ±3.19 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/prompt?window=all) | 5,888 | 94.12% ±3.19 | +1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,888 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $110 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23,256 | $26.22 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 10,204 | $18.39 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 506 | $5.66 | 2.6% | 8 | 11.6 | 0.69× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 545 | $5.26 | 2.3% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 235 | $3.83 | 3.8% | 28 | 25.1 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.24 | 9.1% | 221 | 184.8 | 1.20× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.77 | 12.3% | 426 | 400.6 | 1.06× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.64 | 11.1% | 471 | 433.2 | 1.09× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 10.6% | $0.59 | 14.7% | 618 | 623.7 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.45 | 9.0% | 530 | 502.4 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-battle-scarred) | 11.1% | $0.36 | 9.4% | 640 | 653.9 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 11.7% | $0.36 | 9.9% | 677 | 687.0 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-field-tested) | 10.1% | $0.31 | 7.4% | 591 | 596.2 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.15 | 2.4% | 388 | 393.3 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.15 | 2.4% | 381 | 408.9 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Nexus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-nexus-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.12 | 1.6% | 332 | 344.0 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.07 | 0.6% | 204 | 227.0 | 0.90× |
| [MP5-SD \| Neon Squeezer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-neon-squeezer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $0.06 | 0.4% | 148 | 149.7 | 0.99× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.02 | 0.1% | 109 | 117.4 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.02 | 0.1% | 105 | 117.4 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/prompt/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) [Родион Родионов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A0%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%A0%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.47 $26.40 56.17x 2026-11-03 18:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=prompt)

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [Леонардо](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%BE) $0.46 $0.15 0.33x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Леонардо](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%BE) $0.46 $0.36 0.78x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-battle-scarred) [Леонардо](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%BE) $0.46 $0.15 0.33x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) [Леонардо](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%BE) $0.46 $0.64 1.39x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) [Леонардо](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%BE) $0.46 $0.59 1.28x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-neon-squeezer-battle-scarred) [ⓁⓊⒸⒾⒻⒺⓇ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%93%81%E2%93%8A%E2%92%B8%E2%92%BE%E2%92%BB%E2%92%BA%E2%93%87) $0.46 $0.06 0.13x 2026-11-10 12:40 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) [ⓁⓊⒸⒾⒻⒺⓇ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%93%81%E2%93%8A%E2%92%B8%E2%92%BE%E2%92%BB%E2%92%BA%E2%93%87) $0.46 $0.45 0.98x 2026-11-10 12:40 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Леонардо](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%BE) $0.46 $0.36 0.78x 2026-11-10 12:40 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) [Леонардо](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%BE) $0.46 $0.45 0.98x 2026-11-10 12:40 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Леонардо](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%BE) $0.46 $0.36 0.78x 2026-11-10 12:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.46 | 92.56% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.47 | 90.59% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.47 | 92.57% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% uncommon 0.0% classified 0.0% restricted 25.0% Legendary 0.2% pink 0.4% violet 25.9% Rare 8.5% #87c7ff 10.1% blue 6.7% light blue 6.9% #4b69ff 5.8% milspec 3.9% #5e98d9 6.5% best hit $26.40 (56.17x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.56 on average: an expected loss of $7.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt