---
title: "Pumpkin case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pumpkin ($10.00) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.81% from 42 items with odds, observed 96.37% over 1,321 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Pumpkin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Pumpkin

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 91.81% · EV $9.18 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.37% · 1,321 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 97.96% ±7.29 707 openings

30 days · 96.37% ±5.38 1,321 openings

since tracking started · 96.37% ±5.38 1,321 openings

90.0% 98.0% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin?window=7d) | 707 | 97.96% ±7.29 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin) | 1,321 | 96.37% ±5.38 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/pumpkin?window=all) | 1,321 | 96.37% ±5.38 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,321 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $726 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $459 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 38,462 | $387 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20,833 | $290 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,369 | $176 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,890 | $118 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-chocolate-chesterfield-field-tested) | 1 in 985 | $87.62 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 519 | $64.20 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 407 | $60.78 | 1.6% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.54× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $47.55 | 2.7% | 12 | 6.9 | 1.74× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $47.12 | 3.3% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.55× |
| [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $31.05 | 3.3% | 8 | 13.0 | 0.62× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $25.29 | 3.6% | 16 | 17.2 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $24.40 | 3.6% | 25 | 17.7 | 1.41× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $22.09 | 4.0% | 26 | 21.8 | 1.20× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $19.03 | 4.1% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $17.40 | 5.5% | 42 | 38.2 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $15.21 | 5.6% | 51 | 45.0 | 1.13× |
| [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $14.55 | 4.0% | 33 | 32.9 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $13.74 | 6.1% | 57 | 53.9 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $10.95 | 5.3% | 50 | 58.9 | 0.85× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $10.18 | 6.4% | 70 | 76.0 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $10.09 | 6.5% | 80 | 77.9 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $9.58 | 5.9% | 88 | 75.0 | 1.17× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $8.18 | 4.6% | 66 | 68.1 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.43 | 4.0% | 59 | 64.6 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Scale (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-scale-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.65 | 2.5% | 53 | 52.8 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Walnut (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $4.58 | 2.1% | 58 | 54.9 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $4.44 | 2.2% | 69 | 59.6 | 1.16× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $4.11 | 2.0% | 49 | 58.4 | 0.84× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Jungle Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $3.47 | 1.4% | 47 | 47.8 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $3.44 | 1.3% | 42 | 44.4 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $2.91 | 0.9% | 44 | 36.7 | 1.20× |
| [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.83 | 1.2% | 38 | 49.8 | 0.76× |
| [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $2.66 | 0.9% | 41 | 42.6 | 0.96× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Tango (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-tango-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $2.59 | 0.7% | 32 | 33.1 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.90 | 0.4% | 27 | 28.7 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $1.66 | 0.4% | 22 | 27.5 | 0.80× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $0.99 | 0.2% | 18 | 22.1 | 0.81× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $0.98 | 0.2% | 17 | 19.7 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $0.65 | 0.1% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $0.59 | 0.1% | 21 | 16.9 | 1.24× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/pumpkin/show`, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=pumpkin)

[Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) [~Eghto](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/~Eghto) $10.00 $9.58 0.96x 2026-11-08 20:15 UTC

[Nova | Walnut (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $10.00 $4.58 0.46x 2026-11-08 20:05 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $10.00 $4.11 0.41x 2026-11-08 19:51 UTC

[MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $10.00 $2.66 0.27x 2026-11-08 19:51 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) [Shapik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Shapik) $10.00 $8.18 0.82x 2026-11-08 17:56 UTC

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [Shapik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Shapik) $10.00 $10.95 1.10x 2026-11-08 17:56 UTC

[M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-field-tested) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $10.00 $2.83 0.28x 2026-11-08 16:36 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $10.00 $7.43 0.74x 2026-11-08 16:36 UTC

[MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $10.00 $2.66 0.27x 2026-11-08 16:36 UTC

[MP7 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-field-tested) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $10.00 $15.21 1.52x 2026-11-08 16:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.00 | 91.81% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 92.75% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% epic 0.0% classified 5.8% Immortal 0.1% extraordinary 0.2% gold 0.6% Mil Spec Grade 3.5% restricted 9.2% Restricted 1.3% mil spec 11.3% violet 4.1% industrial 7.9% Uncommon 4.1% Rare 10.4% milspec 5.2% Common 4.9% consumer 14.0% #4b69ff 11.8% Consumer Grade 3.6% gray 1.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.81 on average: an expected loss of $8.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt