---
title: "Purple case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Purple ($19.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.69% from 40 items with odds, observed 93.46% over 142 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Purple](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Purple

A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple?window=all)

Price · $19.99

Advertised RTP · 93.69% · EV $18.73 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.46% · 142 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 22 openings · below min

7 days · 93.46% ±17.32 142 openings

30 days · 93.46% ±17.32 142 openings

since tracking started · 93.46% ±17.32 142 openings

69.0% 113.8% 158.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple?window=24h) | 22 | 113.64% ±44.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple?window=7d) | 142 | 93.46% ±17.3 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple) | 142 | 93.46% ±17.3 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/purple?window=all) | 142 | 93.46% ±17.3 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 208 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,145 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $907 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $662 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $496 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43,478 | $398 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $288 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,944 | $251 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,710 | $185 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,245 | $144 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 623 | $119 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 279 | $89.61 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $83.57 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $70.36 | 3.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.81× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $61.02 | 4.3% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.82× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $59.17 | 3.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $58.42 | 3.9% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $57.80 | 4.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $57.68 | 3.5% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.70× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $53.11 | 4.5% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $50.80 | 4.9% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $48.75 | 5.6% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $46.66 | 5.5% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $45.91 | 5.7% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.44× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $45.68 | 5.0% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $31.60 | 9.1% | 16 | 11.3 | 1.42× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $18.04 | 4.8% | 13 | 10.3 | 1.26× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $14.63 | 3.9% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.01 | 3.2% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $11.72 | 3.1% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.52 | 3.0% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.71 | 2.0% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.99 | 1.8% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.39 | 1.7% | 5 | 10.3 | 0.49× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.19 | 1.4% | 13 | 10.3 | 1.26× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.89 | 1.3% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.75 | 1.3% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.47 | 0.9% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.29 | 0.9% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.36× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.89 | 0.8% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.69 | 0.7% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/purple/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=purple)

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $19.99 $11.52 0.58x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $19.99 $12.01 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $19.99 $11.72 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $19.99 $6.99 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $19.99 $4.75 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $19.99 $45.91 2.30x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $19.99 $58.42 2.92x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC

[G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $19.99 $6.99 0.35x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $19.99 $14.63 0.73x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $19.99 $59.17 2.96x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $19.99 | 93.69% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $19.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% sunny 4.1% covert 7.9% extraordinary 0.0% gold 2.1% rare 5.4% restricted 10.1% Mythical 0.5% #ffd700 1.3% Covert 1.6% Rare 7.1% classified 15.3% mil spec 14.9% pink 14.9% #d32ee6 5.0% uncommon 5.0% Legendary 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.69 on average: an expected loss of $6.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt