--- title: "R 8 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "R 8 ($0.30) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.65% from 36 items with odds, observed 96.08% over 1,173 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [R 8](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · R 8 A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8?window=all) Price · $0.30 Advertised RTP · 94.65% · EV $0.28 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.08% · 1,173 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 102.00% ±12.18 190 openings 7 days · 96.08% ±4.90 1,173 openings 30 days · 96.08% ±4.90 1,173 openings since tracking started · 96.08% ±4.90 1,173 openings 89.0% 102.0% 115.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8?window=24h) | 190 | 102.00% ±12.2 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8?window=7d) | 1,173 | 96.08% ±4.90 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8) | 1,173 | 96.08% ±4.90 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/r8?window=all) | 1,173 | 96.08% ±4.90 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,255 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $86.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $28.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $17.48 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $11.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-memento-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $10.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-factory-new) | 1 in 28,571 | $6.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,346 | $5.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-field-tested) | 1 in 3,731 | $3.63 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,821 | $2.79 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 737 | $2.25 | 1.1% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.76× | | [R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Pistols](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 560 | $1.85 | 1.2% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.78× | | [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $1.33 | 2.6% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $0.94 | 3.0% | 13 | 11.4 | 1.14× | | [R8 Revolver \| Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-mask-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $0.83 | 3.9% | 13 | 16.6 | 0.78× | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $0.66 | 4.4% | 23 | 24.0 | 0.96× | | [R8 Revolver \| Desert Brush (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-desert-brush-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $0.53 | 4.7% | 31 | 31.7 | 0.98× | | [R8 Revolver \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.47 | 6.8% | 58 | 51.7 | 1.12× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.42 | 8.9% | 69 | 75.1 | 0.92× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.36 | 8.4% | 85 | 83.5 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.35 | 10.3% | 117 | 105.0 | 1.11× | | [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.35 | 9.2% | 72 | 93.3 | 0.77× | | [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.29 | 4.1% | 38 | 50.0 | 0.76× | | [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.25 | 3.5% | 51 | 50.0 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.24 | 3.4% | 55 | 50.0 | 1.10× | | [R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.24 | 3.4% | 58 | 50.0 | 1.16× | | [R8 Revolver \| Desert Brush (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-desert-brush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.24 | 3.4% | 49 | 50.0 | 0.98× | | [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.23 | 3.2% | 53 | 50.0 | 1.06× | | [R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.16 | 2.2% | 52 | 50.0 | 1.04× | | [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.16 | 2.2% | 52 | 50.0 | 1.04× | | [R8 Revolver \| Desert Brush (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-desert-brush-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.16 | 2.2% | 55 | 50.0 | 1.10× | | [R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.13 | 1.8% | 52 | 50.0 | 1.04× | | [R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.12 | 1.7% | 58 | 50.0 | 1.16× | | [R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.07 | 1.0% | 55 | 50.0 | 1.10× | | [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.07 | 1.0% | 48 | 50.0 | 0.96× | | [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.04 | 0.6% | 54 | 50.0 | 1.08× | | [R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.04 | 0.6% | 29 | 50.0 | 0.58× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/r8/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=r8) [R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-mask-factory-new) [Burka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Burka) $0.30 $0.83 2.77x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC [R8 Revolver | Desert Brush (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-desert-brush-field-tested) [Burka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Burka) $0.30 $0.16 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.30 $0.42 1.40x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.30 $0.23 0.77x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.30 $0.36 1.20x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [R8 Revolver | Desert Brush (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-desert-brush-minimal-wear) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.30 $0.24 0.80x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [R8 Revolver | Inlay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-minimal-wear) [D3t0ed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D3t0ed) $0.30 $0.12 0.40x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-factory-new) [KocTya D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KocTya%20D.) $0.30 $0.16 0.53x 2026-11-11 10:55 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-minimal-wear) [KocTya D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KocTya%20D.) $0.30 $0.47 1.57x 2026-11-11 10:55 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-minimal-wear) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.30 $0.47 1.57x 2026-11-11 09:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.30 | 94.65% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.30 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 2 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.1% consumer 0.0% mil spec 7.6% industrial 12.0% Industrial Grade 0.0% restricted 0.7% Pistols 0.2% #B0C3D9 1.3% violet 7.9% Common 18.5% Consumer Grade 8.1% blue 23.8% Rare 4.0% milspec 4.0% Uncommon 4.0% #5e98d9 4.0% #b0c3d9 4.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.65 on average: an expected loss of $5.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt