---
title: "Radiant case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Radiant ($0.47) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.76% from 34 items with odds, observed 99.14% over 1,620 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Radiant](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Radiant

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant?window=all)

Price · $0.47

Advertised RTP · 93.76% · EV $0.44 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.14% · 1,620 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 107.70% ±11.99 214 openings

7 days · 99.14% ±4.36 1,620 openings

30 days · 99.14% ±4.36 1,620 openings

since tracking started · 99.14% ±4.36 1,620 openings

93.0% 106.8% 120.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 93.77% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.78% – 103.50%, 1,620 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant?window=24h) | 214 | 107.70% ±12.0 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant?window=7d) | 1,620 | 99.14% ±4.36 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant) | 1,620 | 99.14% ±4.36 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/radiant?window=all) | 1,620 | 99.14% ±4.36 | +2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,844 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $55.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $22.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-factory-new) | 1 in 27,778 | $12.56 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 9,174 | $8.95 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,854 | $6.84 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 2,137 | $5.15 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 2,066 | $5.13 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 305 | $2.66 | 2.0% | 9 | 6.0 | 1.49× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 312 | $2.61 | 1.9% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $2.01 | 2.9% | 16 | 11.8 | 1.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $1.24 | 5.0% | 37 | 32.7 | 1.13× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $1.17 | 4.4% | 43 | 30.3 | 1.42× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $1.02 | 5.7% | 46 | 45.4 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.82 | 6.8% | 68 | 67.5 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.68 | 7.6% | 105 | 91.1 | 1.15× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.66 | 9.3% | 133 | 114.8 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.63 | 7.7% | 93 | 99.0 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.57 | 10.5% | 136 | 149.2 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.45 | 4.1% | 62 | 74.2 | 0.84× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.42 | 3.8% | 62 | 74.2 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 3.7% | 74 | 74.2 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.37 | 3.4% | 71 | 74.2 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.35 | 3.2% | 71 | 74.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.32 | 2.9% | 68 | 74.2 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.30 | 2.7% | 83 | 74.2 | 1.12× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.17 | 1.6% | 86 | 74.2 | 1.16× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.17 | 1.6% | 61 | 74.2 | 0.82× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.15 | 1.4% | 73 | 74.2 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.15 | 1.4% | 75 | 74.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.15 | 1.4% | 77 | 74.2 | 1.04× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.13 | 1.2% | 63 | 74.2 | 0.85× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.12 | 1.1% | 83 | 74.2 | 1.12× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.06 | 0.5% | 62 | 74.3 | 0.83× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.05 | 0.5% | 80 | 74.2 | 1.08× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/radiant/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=radiant)

[SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-factory-new) [d1agnozzzik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/d1agnozzzik) $0.47 $0.12 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Galil AR | O-Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-minimal-wear) [sgvrrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sgvrrrrrrrr) $0.47 $0.06 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:40 UTC

[SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $0.47 $0.12 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC

[P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.47 $0.42 0.89x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.47 $0.68 1.45x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.47 $0.15 0.32x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[Galil AR | O-Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-minimal-wear) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.47 $0.06 0.13x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.47 $2.61 5.55x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[P250 | Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) [Korny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Korny) $0.47 $0.82 1.74x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) [Korny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Korny) $0.47 $0.63 1.34x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.47 | 93.76% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.47 | 94.00% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.0% Legendary 0.0% Mythical 3.8% violet 1.8% blue 13.7% Rare 35.0% milspec 5.4% Mil Spec 4.0% blueLight 8.1% common 4.0% #5e98d9 4.0% industrial 8.1% Uncommon 8.1% Common 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.76 on average: an expected loss of $6.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt