--- title: "Recoil case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Recoil ($2.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.87% from 35 items with odds, observed 89.39% over 150 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Recoil](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Recoil A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil?window=all) Price · $2.49 Advertised RTP · 93.87% · EV $2.34 from 35 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.39% · 150 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 13 openings · below min 7 days · 89.39% ±19.80 150 openings 30 days · 89.39% ±19.80 150 openings since tracking started · 89.39% ±19.80 150 openings 16.0% 84.0% 152.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil?window=24h) | 13 | 83.84% ±67.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil?window=7d) | 150 | 89.39% ±19.8 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil) | 150 | 89.39% ±19.8 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/recoil?window=all) | 150 | 89.39% ±19.8 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 296 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $340 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $256 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $176 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52,632 | $121 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,833 | $80.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,130 | $60.79 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-field-tested) | 1 in 2,907 | $39.34 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 3,460 | $39.23 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,639 | $38.34 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 3,289 | $37.98 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 2,564 | $37.05 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 1,887 | $33.93 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 194 | $14.29 | 3.1% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.97× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $13.41 | 4.1% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $7.95 | 5.4% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× | | [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $7.50 | 5.7% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.38× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $5.34 | 6.3% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× | | [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $4.68 | 7.0% | 11 | 10.4 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.19 | 6.6% | 13 | 11.0 | 1.19× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $3.96 | 7.8% | 19 | 13.6 | 1.40× | | [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $3.77 | 8.9% | 14 | 16.3 | 0.86× | | [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $2.89 | 8.5% | 19 | 20.3 | 0.93× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $2.67 | 10.0% | 19 | 26.0 | 0.73× | | [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.35 | 4.0% | 23 | 20.7 | 1.11× | | [P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $1.29 | 3.7% | 21 | 19.6 | 1.07× | | [M249 \| Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $1.22 | 3.5% | 14 | 19.6 | 0.71× | | [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.90 | 2.1% | 18 | 16.1 | 1.12× | | [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.87 | 2.1% | 27 | 17.0 | 1.58× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.78 | 1.7% | 7 | 15.0 | 0.47× | | [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.72 | 1.4% | 18 | 13.6 | 1.33× | | [M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.59 | 1.1% | 11 | 12.5 | 0.88× | | [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.49 | 0.8% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× | | [Negev \| Drop Me (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.48 | 0.8% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.97× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.42 | 0.6% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× | | [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.40 | 0.6% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/recoil/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=recoil) [UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $0.49 0.20x 2026-11-10 19:51 UTC [M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $0.59 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:51 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $2.89 1.16x 2026-11-10 19:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $0.90 0.36x 2026-11-10 19:51 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $2.89 1.16x 2026-11-10 19:51 UTC [Negev | Drop Me (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $0.48 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:51 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $4.19 1.68x 2026-11-10 19:51 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $3.77 1.51x 2026-11-10 19:50 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $4.19 1.68x 2026-11-10 19:50 UTC [Negev | Drop Me (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $0.48 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 93.87% | 35 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 35 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% Extraordinary 0.0% Immortal 0.0% covert 0.1% Ancient 0.1% Legendary 5.8% classified 0.7% #d32ee6 1.8% pink 16.3% restricted 15.6% Mythical 18.2% violet 17.5% milspec 11.2% Rare 5.1% Mil Spec 3.7% #4b69ff 3.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.87 on average: an expected loss of $6.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt