---
title: "Red case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Red ($22.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 96.57% over 402 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Red](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Red

A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red?window=all)

Price · $22.99

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $21.61 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.57% · 402 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 51.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97 openings · below min

7 days · 96.57% ±8.37 402 openings

30 days · 96.57% ±8.37 402 openings

since tracking started · 96.57% ±8.37 402 openings

69.0% 87.3% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red?window=24h) | 97 | 86.46% ±17.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red?window=7d) | 402 | 96.57% ±8.37 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red) | 402 | 96.57% ±8.37 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/red?window=all) | 402 | 96.57% ±8.37 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 565 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,411 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,137 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90,909 | $767 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37,037 | $531 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) | 1 in 17,241 | $436 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 7,092 | $317 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,717 | $270 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,855 | $221 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 977 | $171 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 480 | $139 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 259 | $113 | 2.0% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 174 | $89.25 | 2.4% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $73.55 | 2.9% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $57.89 | 3.1% | 9 | 6.5 | 1.39× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $51.01 | 3.8% | 13 | 9.0 | 1.44× |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $45.69 | 7.9% | 15 | 21.0 | 0.72× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $41.23 | 5.7% | 16 | 17.0 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $35.14 | 6.0% | 27 | 20.9 | 1.29× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $30.41 | 6.5% | 28 | 26.0 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $28.39 | 7.5% | 35 | 32.2 | 1.09× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $27.09 | 8.3% | 32 | 37.6 | 0.85× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $24.96 | 8.9% | 36 | 43.7 | 0.82× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $24.40 | 9.3% | 48 | 46.4 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $18.87 | 2.7% | 18 | 17.7 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $17.65 | 2.6% | 11 | 17.7 | 0.62× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $15.90 | 2.3% | 13 | 17.7 | 0.73× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $13.65 | 2.0% | 25 | 17.7 | 1.41× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $13.08 | 1.9% | 18 | 17.7 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $11.93 | 1.7% | 13 | 17.7 | 0.73× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $9.58 | 1.4% | 23 | 17.7 | 1.30× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $8.51 | 1.2% | 18 | 17.7 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $7.95 | 1.2% | 15 | 17.7 | 0.85× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $6.80 | 1.0% | 17 | 17.7 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $6.39 | 0.9% | 14 | 17.7 | 0.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $5.24 | 0.8% | 13 | 17.7 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $4.78 | 0.7% | 23 | 17.7 | 1.30× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $4.38 | 0.6% | 15 | 17.7 | 0.85× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $3.89 | 0.6% | 16 | 17.7 | 0.90× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $3.70 | 0.3% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $3.07 | 0.4% | 24 | 17.7 | 1.36× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/red/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=red)

[AUG | Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $22.99 $24.40 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $22.99 $9.58 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $22.99 $17.65 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[MAC-10 | Propaganda (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $22.99 $41.23 1.79x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $22.99 $5.24 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $22.99 $3.89 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $22.99 $28.39 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $22.99 $4.38 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $22.99 $7.95 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $22.99 $13.08 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $22.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.9% red 0.0% classified 12.1% epic 0.1% Immortal 0.4% restricted 33.5% mil spec 12.2% #d32ee6 3.0% pink 7.7% Restricted 8.2% Mythical 9.4% uncommon 3.1% Legendary 3.1% violet 3.1% blue 3.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt