---
title: "Referral case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Referral ($0.10) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 21.69% from 39 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Referral](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Referral

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral?window=all)

Price · $0.10

Advertised RTP · 21.69% · EV $0.02 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 48.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 98.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/referral?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $58.04 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $31.22 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) | 1 in 1,942 | $0.26 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.24 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-copper-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.23 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.22 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.22 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.21 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.21 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Snake Pit (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-snake-pit-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Midnight Paintover (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-midnight-paintover-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-straight-dimes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-copper-fiber-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 13.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-field-tested) | 19.7% | $0.02 | 18.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-minimal-wear) | 17.7% | $0.02 | 16.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-factory-new) | 17.7% | $0.02 | 16.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Sleet (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sleet-minimal-wear) | 13.8% | $0.02 | 12.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-field-tested) | 1 in 1,938 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Bizoom (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bizoom-field-tested) | 19.7% | $0.01 | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/referral/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=referral)

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-minimal-wear) [alaska\<3#oldRust](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/alaska%3C3%23oldRust) $0.10 $0.02 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-factory-new) [Ragesong realdrop.net](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Ragesong%20realdrop.net) $0.10 $0.02 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[FAMAS | Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-field-tested) [TROINISH](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/TROINISH) $0.10 $0.15 1.50x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[SG 553 | Night Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-field-tested) [zakhar.zakharov.12](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/zakhar.zakharov.12) $0.10 $0.02 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-factory-new) [1734028240](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/1734028240) $0.10 $0.02 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Bizoom (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bizoom-field-tested) [Gamer dio](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Gamer%20dio) $0.10 $0.01 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[SG 553 | Night Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-field-tested) [yotmech](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/yotmech) $0.10 $0.02 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-factory-new) [ECKAPXO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ECKAPXO) $0.10 $0.02 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-copper-fiber-field-tested) [Rusty dota2vipgame.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Rusty%20dota2vipgame.com) $0.10 $0.03 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-factory-new) [\[ELOPUB\] BbICEP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%5BELOPUB%5D%20BbICEP) $0.10 $0.02 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.10 | 21.69% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.1% 2 0.1% classified 0.0% covert 0.0% light blue 0.2% #4b69ff 0.2% industrial 0.1% Rare 0.1% #5e98d9 10.1% Consumer Grade 0.1% blue 0.1% blueLight 0.1% Uncommon 0.2% milspec 0.1% #b0c3d9 37.5% #87c7ff 0.1% Common 0.1% gray 19.7% common 17.7% consumer 13.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 21.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $21.69 on average: an expected loss of $78.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt