--- title: "Restricted case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Restricted ($2.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.40% from 38 items with odds, observed 98.32% over 1,654 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Restricted A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted?window=all) Price · $2.99 Advertised RTP · 94.40% · EV $2.82 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.32% · 1,654 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 57.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.96% ±10.49 396 openings 7 days · 98.32% ±5.13 1,654 openings 30 days · 98.32% ±5.13 1,654 openings since tracking started · 98.32% ±5.13 1,654 openings 87.0% 98.0% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted?window=24h) | 396 | 97.96% ±10.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted?window=7d) | 1,654 | 98.32% ±5.13 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted) | 1,654 | 98.32% ±5.13 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/restricted?window=all) | 1,654 | 98.32% ±5.13 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,751 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $431 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $343 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| First Class (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $222 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| First Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66,667 | $150 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37,037 | $97.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 1 in 15,385 | $74.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 6,803 | $58.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 3,236 | $40.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 1,314 | $28.59 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.25× | | [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) | 1 in 618 | $23.00 | 1.3% | 7 | 2.8 | 2.47× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $17.64 | 2.0% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $14.48 | 3.1% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $11.07 | 3.5% | 15 | 15.8 | 0.95× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $9.09 | 4.3% | 29 | 23.2 | 1.25× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $7.50 | 4.9% | 39 | 32.2 | 1.21× | | [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $6.06 | 5.5% | 40 | 44.5 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $5.15 | 6.2% | 67 | 59.6 | 1.12× | | [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $4.69 | 7.1% | 76 | 75.0 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $4.16 | 7.9% | 109 | 93.7 | 1.16× | | [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $3.78 | 9.9% | 124 | 129.9 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $3.63 | 8.3% | 107 | 113.4 | 0.94× | | [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $3.24 | 9.2% | 162 | 139.7 | 1.16× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.70 | 3.4% | 62 | 62.7 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.45 | 3.1% | 54 | 62.7 | 0.86× | | [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.96 | 2.5% | 68 | 62.7 | 1.09× | | [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.76 | 2.2% | 50 | 62.7 | 0.80× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.63 | 2.1% | 63 | 62.7 | 1.01× | | [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.35 | 1.7% | 55 | 62.7 | 0.88× | | [Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.24 | 1.6% | 53 | 62.7 | 0.85× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.10 | 1.4% | 55 | 62.7 | 0.88× | | [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.99 | 1.3% | 76 | 62.7 | 1.21× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.90 | 1.1% | 84 | 62.7 | 1.34× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.78 | 1.0% | 50 | 62.7 | 0.80× | | [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.68 | 0.9% | 51 | 62.7 | 0.81× | | [P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.60 | 0.8% | 71 | 62.7 | 1.13× | | [P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.51 | 0.6% | 54 | 62.7 | 0.86× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.48 | 0.6% | 59 | 62.7 | 0.94× | | [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.40 | 0.5% | 54 | 62.7 | 0.86× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/restricted/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=restricted) [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $2.99 $0.40 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $2.99 $1.96 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $2.99 $0.90 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $2.99 $3.63 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $2.99 $3.24 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $2.99 $4.16 1.39x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $2.99 $2.70 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-minimal-wear) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $2.99 $3.78 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $2.99 $4.69 1.57x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.99 $3.63 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.99 | 94.40% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 40.7% violet 14.1% Mythical 27.2% #8847ff 10.7% Restricted 7.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.40 on average: an expected loss of $5.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt