--- title: "Revolution case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Revolution ($2.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.43% from 34 items with odds, observed 98.72% over 383 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Revolution](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Revolution A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution?window=all) Price · $2.49 Advertised RTP · 93.43% · EV $2.33 from 34 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.72% · 383 openings, sample method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 383 openings · below min 30 days · 383 openings · below min since tracking started · 383 openings · below min -0.5% 116.5% 233.5% **Small sample.** 383 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution?window=24h) | 4 | 110.74% ±122.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution?window=7d) | 383 | 98.72% ±11.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution) | 383 | 98.72% ±11.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolution?window=all) | 383 | 98.72% ±11.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 383 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $361 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $231 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $174 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55,556 | $113 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23,810 | $81.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Minimal Wear) gloves · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,638 | $62.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 4,032 | $43.71 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 1,862 | $34.24 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $32.73 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,560 | $32.59 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 1,736 | $31.61 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 1,577 | $29.47 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 1,647 | $29.26 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 126 | $11.52 | 3.9% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.66× | | [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 126 | $11.39 | 3.9% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $9.40 | 4.9% | 9 | 4.6 | 1.94× | | [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $5.19 | 7.5% | 15 | 12.8 | 1.17× | | [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $5.05 | 7.3% | 15 | 12.9 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $4.96 | 7.8% | 12 | 14.0 | 0.86× | | [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.47 | 10.1% | 23 | 26.0 | 0.88× | | [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.47 | 10.0% | 28 | 25.6 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.13 | 11.1% | 41 | 31.6 | 1.30× | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $2.39 | 5.5% | 25 | 20.7 | 1.21× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $2.10 | 4.9% | 20 | 20.7 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1.43 | 3.3% | 18 | 20.7 | 0.87× | | [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1.30 | 3.0% | 27 | 20.7 | 1.31× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.90 | 2.1% | 17 | 20.7 | 0.82× | | [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.71 | 1.6% | 20 | 20.7 | 0.97× | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.66 | 1.5% | 20 | 20.7 | 0.97× | | [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.59 | 1.4% | 27 | 20.7 | 1.31× | | [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.53 | 1.2% | 16 | 20.7 | 0.77× | | [Tec-9 \| Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.53 | 1.2% | 20 | 20.7 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.37 | 0.9% | 17 | 20.7 | 0.82× | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.35 | 0.8% | 9 | 20.7 | 0.44× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/revolution/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=revolution) [AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [QQHA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/QQHA) $2.49 $3.13 1.26x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC [P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) [Mr.Frodo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Frodo) $2.49 $1.30 0.52x 2026-11-10 18:54 UTC [AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [bus1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bus1k) $2.49 $3.13 1.26x 2026-11-10 14:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) [uu.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/uu.) $2.49 $3.47 1.39x 2026-11-10 14:42 UTC [AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [МАМУРА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%90%D0%9C%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%90) $2.49 $3.13 1.26x 2026-11-10 11:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) [МАМУРА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%90%D0%9C%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%90) $2.49 $2.10 0.84x 2026-11-10 11:49 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) [МАМУРА](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%90%D0%9C%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%90) $2.49 $0.53 0.21x 2026-11-10 11:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) [Demolisher](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Demolisher) $2.49 $0.90 0.36x 2026-11-10 04:39 UTC [P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) [Богдан Игнатов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%20%D0%98%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B2) $2.49 $1.30 0.52x 2026-11-10 02:27 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) [EbuWashRot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/EbuWashRot) $2.49 $5.05 2.03x 2026-11-09 18:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 93.43% | 34 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 34 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.2% Extraordinary 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% gold 0.1% Ancient 0.1% covert 0.1% classified 0.8% pink 30.4% Classified 3.7% #8847ff 16.2% restricted 5.4% Mythical 16.2% violet 10.8% milspec 10.8% Rare 5.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.43 on average: an expected loss of $6.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt