---
title: "Revolver case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Revolver ($7.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.77% from 38 items with odds, observed 109.17% over 21 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Revolver](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Revolver

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver?window=all)

Price · $7.49

Advertised RTP · 95.77% · EV $7.17 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 109.17% · 21 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 21 openings · below min

30 days · 21 openings · below min

since tracking started · 21 openings · below min

18.5% 98.3% 178.0%

**Small sample.** 21 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver?window=24h) | 8 | 98.41% ±79.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver?window=7d) | 21 | 109.17% ±48.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver) | 21 | 109.17% ±48.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/revolver?window=all) | 21 | 109.17% ±48.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $428 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66,667 | $338 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 28,571 | $217 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15,873 | $194 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,849 | $146 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,236 | $110 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 1,502 | $90.97 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 1,585 | $85.02 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 488 | $55.02 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 393 | $51.64 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 360 | $48.56 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $47.37 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 296 | $46.98 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 365 | $46.05 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $25.14 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $21.93 | 4.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $13.82 | 6.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $11.94 | 9.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.62× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $11.24 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $11.14 | 7.3% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $9.56 | 6.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.90× |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $9.46 | 7.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.68× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $9.19 | 7.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $7.26 | 8.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.17× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $4.29 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $4.07 | 2.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $4.03 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $3.71 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $3.69 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.79 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.23 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.21 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.15 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.79 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.43 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-yorick-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.41 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.97 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/revolver/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=revolver)

[Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $7.49 $9.56 1.28x 2026-11-11 08:46 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $7.49 $11.94 1.59x 2026-11-11 08:46 UTC

[Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $7.49 $4.03 0.54x 2026-11-11 08:46 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Yorick (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-yorick-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $7.49 $1.41 0.19x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $7.49 $4.07 0.54x 2026-11-11 08:41 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $7.49 $11.14 1.49x 2026-11-11 08:40 UTC

[Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $7.49 $7.26 0.97x 2026-11-11 08:40 UTC

[Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) [Aleksey Warnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksey%20Warnov) $7.49 $9.56 1.28x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) [No enemies1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/No%20enemies1) $7.49 $7.26 0.97x 2026-11-09 00:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $7.49 $13.82 1.85x 2026-11-08 05:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $7.49 | 95.77% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $7.49 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 3.8% covert 0.7% covert knife 0.0% #ffd700 0.3% classified 22.4% gold 0.3% mil spec 13.5% restricted 31.7% #8847ff 15.8% violet 3.8% Mythical 3.8% #4b69ff 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.77 on average: an expected loss of $4.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt