--- title: "Riptide case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Riptide ($6.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.13% from 38 items with odds, observed 105.18% over 110 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Riptide](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Riptide A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide?window=all) Price · $6.49 Advertised RTP · 92.13% · EV $5.98 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.18% · 110 openings, sample method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 110 openings · below min 30 days · 110 openings · below min since tracking started · 110 openings · below min -0.5% 106.5% 213.5% **Small sample.** 110 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide?window=24h) | 1 | 25.73% ±187.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide?window=7d) | 110 | 105.18% ±24.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide) | 110 | 105.18% ±24.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/riptide?window=all) | 110 | 105.18% ±24.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500,000 | $478 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 166,667 | $284 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 52,632 | $171 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 29,412 | $157 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,346 | $113 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $95.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 2,695 | $68.71 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 1,799 | $62.47 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $43.16 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-minimal-wear) | 1 in 302 | $34.18 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $30.44 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $26.54 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $18.62 | 3.2% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.55× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $17.91 | 4.4% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.87× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $16.87 | 4.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.23× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $16.80 | 4.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.70× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $13.01 | 5.5% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $12.88 | 5.3% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $8.64 | 8.0% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $8.54 | 7.8% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $7.71 | 9.9% | 10 | 8.4 | 1.19× | | [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $7.22 | 10.0% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $5.05 | 3.2% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× | | [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $4.98 | 3.2% | 9 | 4.2 | 2.16× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $4.78 | 3.0% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× | | [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $4.27 | 2.7% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× | | [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $3.32 | 2.1% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $2.99 | 1.9% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× | | [G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $2.39 | 1.5% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.44× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.33 | 1.5% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.68× | | [Dual Berettas \| Tread (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.00 | 1.3% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× | | [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.86 | 1.2% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× | | [G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.77 | 1.1% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× | | [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.67 | 1.1% | 8 | 4.2 | 1.92× | | [AUG \| Plague (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.62 | 1.0% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.95 | 0.6% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× | | [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.92 | 0.6% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× | | [Dual Berettas \| Tread (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.79 | 0.5% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.20× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/riptide/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=riptide) [XM1014 | Watchdog (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-field-tested) [Бобр жора](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%20%D0%B6%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0) $6.49 $1.67 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC [MP7 | Guerrilla (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-factory-new) [ЭллОчка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%BB%D0%9E%D1%87%D0%BA%D0%B0) $6.49 $4.27 0.66x 2026-11-10 08:47 UTC [Dual Berettas | Tread (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $6.49 $0.79 0.12x 2026-11-09 19:37 UTC [MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) [Fear is Near](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fear%20is%20Near) $6.49 $4.98 0.77x 2026-11-09 07:52 UTC [XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) [Fear is Near](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fear%20is%20Near) $6.49 $7.22 1.11x 2026-11-09 07:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Tread (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-minimal-wear) [Volchonok052](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Volchonok052) $6.49 $2.00 0.31x 2026-11-09 07:34 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) [Wayne](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Wayne) $6.49 $13.01 2.00x 2026-11-08 21:20 UTC [AUG | Plague (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-minimal-wear) [4get](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/4get) $6.49 $1.62 0.25x 2026-11-08 16:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) [ОГУРЧИК](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D0%93%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%A7%D0%98%D0%9A) $6.49 $26.54 4.09x 2026-11-07 19:46 UTC [MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) [ОГУРЧИК](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D0%93%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%A7%D0%98%D0%9A) $6.49 $4.98 0.77x 2026-11-07 19:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $6.49 | 92.13% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $6.49 | 94.00% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 8.2% covert 0.1% Ancient 0.0% Covert 0.0% classified 1.6% pink 1.8% restricted 13.8% Legendary 0.6% mil spec 4.8% #d32ee6 1.6% Mythical 8.0% violet 13.9% Mil Spec Grade 3.8% #8847ff 7.6% Mil Spec 7.6% blue 15.2% #4b69ff 7.6% milspec 3.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.13 on average: an expected loss of $7.87 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt