--- title: "Risingsun case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Risingsun ($89.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.76% from 35 items with odds, observed 90.85% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun rendered: 2026-11-11T17:16Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Risingsun](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Risingsun A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun?window=all) Price · $89.99 Advertised RTP · 90.76% · EV $81.67 from 35 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.85% · 18 openings, sample method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 120.8% 242.0% **Small sample.** 18 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun?window=24h) | 1 | 12.38% ±228.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun?window=7d) | 18 | 90.85% ±56.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun) | 18 | 90.85% ±56.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/risingsun?window=all) | 18 | 90.85% ±56.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $3,597 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $3,459 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,299 | $1,522 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,086 | $1,212 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,835 | $947 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 518 | $568 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 401 | $566 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 260 | $564 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 383 | $557 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 307 | $508 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 272 | $492 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $489 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 510 | $485 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 268 | $485 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 273 | $479 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 283 | $475 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 259 | $470 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-field-tested) | 1 in 251 | $466 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $144 | 5.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $123 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $121 | 6.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $97.24 | 7.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $90.84 | 9.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× | | [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $87.12 | 6.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $85.54 | 6.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $84.07 | 5.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $77.40 | 5.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $72.29 | 5.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $25.58 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $22.89 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.94× | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $18.01 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $14.34 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $11.42 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $11.14 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $11.13 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.94× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/risingsun/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=risingsun) [P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) [SYBIROOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SYBIROOS) $89.99 $11.14 0.12x 2026-11-10 21:55 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $89.99 $25.58 0.28x 2026-11-08 19:48 UTC [P250 | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $89.99 $14.34 0.16x 2026-11-07 11:02 UTC [P250 | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $89.99 $11.70 0.13x 2026-11-05 20:23 UTC [P250 | Crimson Kimono (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $89.99 $19.45 0.22x 2026-11-05 20:23 UTC [Tec-9 | Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $89.99 $90.84 1.01x 2026-11-05 20:23 UTC [Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $89.99 $85.87 0.95x 2026-11-05 20:23 UTC [Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $89.99 $107 1.19x 2026-11-05 20:23 UTC [Tec-9 | Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $89.99 $129 1.44x 2026-11-05 20:23 UTC [Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $89.99 $163 1.82x 2026-11-05 20:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $89.99 | 90.76% | 35 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $89.99 | 94.00% | 35 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% covert 0.4% restricted 3.5% #8847ff 0.4% mil spec 35.7% #4b69ff 14.2% industrial 28.6% consumer 11.4% Industrial Grade 5.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.76 on average: an expected loss of $9.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt