---
title: "Run tg case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Run tg ($0.16) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.10% from 17 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Run tg](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Run tg

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg?window=all)

Price · $0.16

Advertised RTP · 90.10% · EV $0.14 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 44.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/run-tg?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,075 | $37.31 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,757 | $29.06 | 11.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.18 | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.16 | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.15 | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.13 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Midnight Paintover (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-midnight-paintover-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.11 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.09 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.07 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.06 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.06 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.06 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.03 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Facility Sketch (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-facility-sketch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.03 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Commando Company (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/run_tg/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=run-tg)

[Desert Eagle | Tilted (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-field-tested) [P0k0f0n1k | PRIME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/P0k0f0n1k%20%7C%20PRIME) $0.16 $0.18 1.13x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC

[FAMAS | Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-field-tested) [harmonfoit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/harmonfoit) $0.16 $0.14 0.88x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [Crazydogwithoutbrain](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Crazydogwithoutbrain) $0.16 $0.16 1.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[FAMAS | Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-field-tested) [N1CROMANN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/N1CROMANN) $0.16 $0.14 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Tilted (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-field-tested) [nestervg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/nestervg) $0.16 $0.18 1.13x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Tilted (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-field-tested) [We'Re D](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/We%26%2339%3BRe%20D) $0.16 $0.18 1.13x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Tilted (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-field-tested) [qosimovamuxlisa91](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/qosimovamuxlisa91) $0.16 $0.18 1.13x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Tilted (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-field-tested) [Фригидная](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A4%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F) $0.16 $0.18 1.13x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [Raven](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Raven) $0.16 $0.15 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Tilted (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-field-tested) [Nasfort](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nasfort) $0.16 $0.18 1.13x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.16 | 90.10% | 17 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.16 | 88.54% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 0.0% classified 0.1% #5e98d9 9.0% light blue 18.3% #4b69ff 13.9% Uncommon 30.9% #b0c3d9 6.8% industrial 5.4% #87c7ff 4.2% Common 3.7% consumer 3.7% common 3.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.10 on average: an expected loss of $9.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt