--- title: "Runbet case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Runbet ($3.76) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.93% from 42 items with odds, observed 95.32% over 285 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Runbet](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Runbet A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet?window=all) Price · $3.76 Advertised RTP · 93.93% · EV $3.53 from 42 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.32% · 285 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 37 openings · below min 30 days · 95.32% ±20.05 285 openings since tracking started · 95.32% ±20.05 285 openings 19.0% 74.8% 130.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet?window=7d) | 37 | 74.64% ±55.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet) | 285 | 95.32% ±20.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runbet?window=all) | 285 | 95.32% ±20.1 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 285 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,729 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,208 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,284 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,265 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,216 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,214 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,045 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $689 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $642 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $532 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 200,000 | $454 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $414 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $380 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $363 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 111,111 | $298 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31,250 | $189 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 34,483 | $179 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 32,258 | $174 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30,303 | $173 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 5,348 | $82.96 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 3,215 | $70.53 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 2,481 | $63.53 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $24.78 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-well-worn) | 1 in 165 | $20.72 | 3.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $14.24 | 4.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× | | [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $11.62 | 6.2% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $5.68 | 9.1% | 24 | 16.2 | 1.48× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $5.51 | 9.2% | 19 | 16.7 | 1.14× | | [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $4.27 | 9.7% | 17 | 22.9 | 0.74× | | [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $3.83 | 10.5% | 25 | 27.6 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $3.60 | 9.8% | 22 | 27.3 | 0.80× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $3.37 | 8.8% | 28 | 26.3 | 1.06× | | [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $3.06 | 7.1% | 25 | 23.5 | 1.07× | | [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.23 | 4.8% | 29 | 21.8 | 1.33× | | [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.96 | 4.0% | 19 | 20.6 | 0.92× | | [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1.35 | 2.0% | 13 | 15.2 | 0.86× | | [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.10 | 1.5% | 10 | 13.7 | 0.73× | | [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.92 | 1.1% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.02× | | [Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.59 | 0.5% | 6 | 9.2 | 0.65× | | [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.31× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $0.38 | 0.3% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× | | [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.26 | 0.1% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/runbet/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=runbet) [Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $3.84 $1.96 0.51x 2026-11-05 11:30 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $3.84 $1.35 0.35x 2026-11-05 11:30 UTC [MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) [±Бąŧя±•](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%C2%B1%D0%91%C4%85%C5%A7%D1%8F%C2%B1%E2%80%A2) $3.84 $5.51 1.43x 2026-11-05 11:29 UTC [Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) [\_Voovcheg\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_Voovcheg_) $3.84 $0.59 0.15x 2026-11-04 21:13 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) [Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Sun) $3.84 $1.35 0.35x 2026-11-04 21:10 UTC [UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) [Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Sun) $3.84 $3.83 1.00x 2026-11-04 21:10 UTC [USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) [Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Sun) $3.84 $0.26 0.07x 2026-11-04 21:09 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) [Евгений Сапрыкин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%95%D0%B2%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD) $3.84 $1.35 0.35x 2026-11-04 18:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [l\_hari\_l](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/l_hari_l) $3.84 $1.96 0.51x 2026-11-04 17:49 UTC [Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-battle-scarred) [Ivanov Ivanovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Ivanov%20Ivanovich) $3.84 $0.43 0.11x 2026-11-04 14:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.76 | 93.93% | 42 | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.84 | 91.97% | 42 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.84 | 93.63% | 42 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 6.5% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 0.0% restricted 7.7% #eb4b4b 0.0% Immortal 0.0% rare 0.0% gold 0.0% Ancient 0.5% #d32ce6 1.2% Legendary 11.5% #d32ee6 5.7% pink 26.0% #8847ff 9.2% Mythical 15.8% violet 11.6% #4b69ff 4.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.93 on average: an expected loss of $6.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt