---
title: "Runcase tg case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Runcase tg ($0.15) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 97.28% from 17 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Runcase tg](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Runcase tg

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg?window=all)

Price · $0.15

Advertised RTP · 97.28% · EV $0.15 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 81.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/runcase-tg?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,833 | $63.00 | 15.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,916 | $29.06 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.16 | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.16 | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.15 | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Rain Station (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Wildwood (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Midnight Paintover (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-midnight-paintover-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.11 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.09 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.07 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.06 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.06 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.06 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.03 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Facility Sketch (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-facility-sketch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.03 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Commando Company (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/runcase_tg/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=runcase-tg)

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) [8228631777](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/8228631777) $0.15 $0.16 1.07x 2026-11-11 05:26 UTC

[MAG-7 | Wildwood (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-factory-new) [Sonn\_kot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Sonn_kot) $0.15 $0.14 0.93x 2026-11-10 18:31 UTC

[Nova | Rain Station (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-factory-new) [x3\_gLoc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/x3_gLoc) $0.15 $0.14 0.93x 2026-11-10 12:19 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [pahan2991](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/pahan2991) $0.15 $0.15 1.00x 2026-11-10 05:48 UTC

[Nova | Rain Station (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-factory-new) [SvetVnoche](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SvetVnoche) $0.15 $0.14 0.93x 2026-11-09 18:22 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [sl1ky1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sl1ky1) $0.15 $0.15 1.00x 2026-11-09 12:31 UTC

[MAG-7 | Wildwood (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-factory-new) [CYBERSHOOKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/CYBERSHOOKE) $0.15 $0.14 0.93x 2026-11-09 12:19 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) [thesenych18](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/thesenych18) $0.15 $0.16 1.07x 2026-11-09 12:17 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) [FleyterTOP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FleyterTOP) $0.15 $0.16 1.07x 2026-11-09 09:49 UTC

[Nova | Rain Station (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-factory-new) [iuTNCTFdcI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/iuTNCTFdcI) $0.15 $0.14 0.93x 2026-11-09 09:42 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.15 | 97.28% | 17 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.15 | 98.07% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.0% classified 0.1% industrial 41.7% milspec 9.1% Uncommon 21.8% #b0c3d9 6.9% #87c7ff 4.3% #4b69ff 4.8% Common 3.8% consumer 3.8% common 3.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.28 on average: an expected loss of $2.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt