--- title: "Safehouse case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Safehouse ($0.20) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.01% from 31 items with odds, observed 93.53% over 1,276 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Safehouse](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Safehouse A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse?window=all) Price · $0.20 Advertised RTP · 88.01% · EV $0.18 from 31 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.53% · 1,276 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.00% ±12.14 288 openings 7 days · 93.53% ±5.77 1,276 openings 30 days · 93.53% ±5.77 1,276 openings since tracking started · 93.53% ±5.77 1,276 openings 84.0% 97.0% 110.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse?window=24h) | 288 | 97.00% ±12.1 | +1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse?window=7d) | 1,276 | 93.53% ±5.77 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse) | 1,276 | 93.53% ±5.77 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/safehouse?window=all) | 1,276 | 93.53% ±5.77 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,376 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 24,390 | $10.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 7,576 | $5.13 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 6,993 | $5.05 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Condemned (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-factory-new) | 1 in 5,051 | $3.68 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 160 | $1.04 | 3.7% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.40× | | [FAMAS \| Teardown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $0.67 | 5.0% | 19 | 18.2 | 1.05× | | [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $0.62 | 5.2% | 25 | 20.4 | 1.23× | | [SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $0.61 | 5.4% | 17 | 21.4 | 0.80× | | [MP7 \| Army Recon (Factory New) weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-army-recon-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $0.61 | 5.3% | 27 | 20.9 | 1.29× | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $0.49 | 6.2% | 42 | 30.6 | 1.37× | | [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $0.48 | 6.1% | 36 | 30.6 | 1.18× | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.44 | 6.1% | 27 | 33.7 | 0.80× | | [Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $0.40 | 5.1% | 32 | 30.6 | 1.04× | | [FAMAS \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.25 | 8.4% | 80 | 81.5 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.17 | 4.2% | 56 | 60.3 | 0.93× | | [M249 \| Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.16 | 7.5% | 123 | 113.9 | 1.08× | | [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.15 | 3.7% | 71 | 60.3 | 1.18× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.15 | 3.7% | 51 | 60.3 | 0.85× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.14 | 3.5% | 52 | 60.3 | 0.86× | | [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.13 | 3.2% | 65 | 60.3 | 1.08× | | [AUG \| Condemned (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.12 | 3.0% | 57 | 60.3 | 0.95× | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.10 | 2.5% | 58 | 60.3 | 0.96× | | [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.07 | 1.7% | 54 | 60.3 | 0.90× | | [M249 \| Gator Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.06 | 1.5% | 66 | 60.3 | 1.09× | | [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.06 | 1.5% | 65 | 60.3 | 1.08× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.05 | 1.2% | 57 | 60.3 | 0.95× | | [SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.05 | 1.2% | 62 | 60.3 | 1.03× | | [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.04 | 1.0% | 53 | 60.3 | 0.88× | | [Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.04 | 1.0% | 51 | 60.3 | 0.85× | | [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 55 | 60.3 | 0.91× | | [Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-contractor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 62 | 60.3 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/safehouse/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=safehouse) [M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-factory-new) [Fallen Samurai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fallen%20Samurai) $0.20 $0.16 0.80x 2026-11-11 07:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-contractor-factory-new) [Fallen Samurai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fallen%20Samurai) $0.20 $0.40 2.00x 2026-11-11 07:52 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-minimal-wear) [Fallen Samurai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fallen%20Samurai) $0.20 $0.17 0.85x 2026-11-11 07:52 UTC [M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-factory-new) [Fallen Samurai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fallen%20Samurai) $0.20 $0.16 0.80x 2026-11-11 07:52 UTC [Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.20 $0.04 0.20x 2026-11-11 07:10 UTC [M249 | Gator Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-minimal-wear) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.20 $0.06 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:10 UTC [Dual Berettas | Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-contractor-minimal-wear) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.20 $0.03 0.15x 2026-11-11 07:10 UTC [MP9 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.20 $0.03 0.15x 2026-11-11 07:10 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-factory-new) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.20 $0.15 0.75x 2026-11-11 07:10 UTC [FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-factory-new) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/) $0.20 $0.67 3.35x 2026-11-11 07:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.20 | 88.01% | 31 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.20 | 94.00% | 31 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 4.4% 2 12.7% restricted 3.1% Industrial Grade 0.0% industrial 30.7% #87c7ff 4.4% #4b69ff 1.3% mil spec 14.0% consumer 8.2% SMGs 1.5% Consumer Grade 6.6% Uncommon 8.8% Common 4.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.01 on average: an expected loss of $11.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt