---
title: "Saitama case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Saitama ($1.30) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.89% from 49 items with odds, observed 94.65% over 2,651 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Saitama](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Saitama

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama?window=all)

Price · $1.30

Advertised RTP · 93.89% · EV $1.22 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.65% · 2,651 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 57.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.64% ±6.50 2,284 openings

7 days · 94.49% ±6.05 2,641 openings

30 days · 94.65% ±6.04 2,651 openings

since tracking started · 94.65% ±6.04 2,651 openings

88.0% 95.5% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama?window=24h) | 2,284 | 95.64% ±6.50 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama?window=7d) | 2,641 | 94.49% ±6.05 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama) | 2,651 | 94.65% ±6.04 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/saitama?window=all) | 2,651 | 94.65% ±6.04 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,651 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,048 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $479 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $311 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $218 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $191 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $186 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $168 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $155 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $148 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $104 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76,923 | $60.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 62,500 | $55.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 58,824 | $53.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58,824 | $51.26 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 22,222 | $37.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,526 | $28.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,000 | $26.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 10,309 | $25.31 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 1,976 | $15.78 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.49× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,081 | $11.53 | 0.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-well-worn) | 1 in 716 | $10.33 | 1.2% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 525 | $9.33 | 1.5% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-factory-new) | 1 in 390 | $8.37 | 1.8% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 338 | $6.97 | 1.7% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 279 | $6.59 | 1.9% | 14 | 9.5 | 1.47× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) | 1 in 126 | $5.66 | 3.7% | 20 | 21.0 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $5.37 | 2.7% | 14 | 16.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) | 1 in 103 | $4.11 | 3.3% | 29 | 25.8 | 1.12× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $3.71 | 13.4% | 124 | 116.6 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| G2 Esports (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · 9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-g2-esports-holo-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 76 | $2.89 | 3.1% | 50 | 34.8 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $2.55 | 4.6% | 56 | 58.4 | 0.96× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $2.39 | 4.4% | 51 | 60.0 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $2.00 | 4.6% | 63 | 74.0 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.53 | 4.9% | 101 | 103.0 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.41 | 5.9% | 130 | 134.9 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $1.39 | 5.9% | 141 | 136.4 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $1.38 | 6.3% | 158 | 147.5 | 1.07× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $1.31 | 6.6% | 157 | 162.2 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.02 | 5.5% | 186 | 175.0 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.71 | 3.5% | 157 | 161.7 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.63 | 3.1% | 166 | 161.7 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.37 | 1.6% | 146 | 139.9 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.35 | 1.5% | 139 | 139.9 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.29 | 1.2% | 141 | 138.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cassette-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.23 | 0.9% | 132 | 129.0 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.18 | 0.7% | 110 | 124.0 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-spirit-board-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.16 | 0.6% | 123 | 119.5 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.15 | 0.6% | 117 | 121.1 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.13 | 0.5% | 103 | 112.4 | 0.92× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/saitama/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=saitama)

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $0.63 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $0.71 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $1.02 0.78x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $0.35 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[P250 | Red Tide (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-well-worn) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $0.15 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $0.29 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $0.37 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cassette-minimal-wear) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $0.23 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $0.71 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cassette-minimal-wear) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.30 $0.23 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.30 | 93.89% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.22 | 100.04% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.22 | 97.16% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 9 1.3% covert knife 0.0% restricted 6.7% covert 0.0% classified 0.5% extraordinary 0.0% sunny 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% rare 0.1% Legendary 0.1% mil spec 4.9% pink 0.4% #8847ff 12.0% violet 15.8% #4b69ff 7.9% milspec 13.3% Mythical 17.8% Rare 10.5% blue 4.6% Uncommon 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.89 on average: an expected loss of $6.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt