---
title: "Sapphire case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sapphire ($1,354.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 97.29% from 13 items with odds, observed 35.64% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Sapphire

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire?window=all)

Price · $1,354.99

Advertised RTP · 97.29% · EV $1,318.26 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 35.64% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

-0.5% 92.3% 185.0%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire?window=7d) | 2 | 35.64% ±148.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire) | 2 | 35.64% ±148.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sapphire?window=all) | 2 | 35.64% ±148.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 47 | $7,283 | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 36 | $5,485 | 11.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 30 | $5,395 | 13.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 10.1% | $1,834 | 14.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 13.2% | $1,223 | 12.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 12.9% | $1,103 | 10.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 10.9% | $918 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 11.9% | $895 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 11 | $629 | 4.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 13 | $506 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 16 | $337 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $275 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 22 | $197 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/sapphire/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $1,355 $629 0.46x 2026-11-06 19:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=sapphire)

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $1,355 $629 0.46x 2026-11-06 19:29 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $1,355 $337 0.25x 2026-11-06 14:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1,355 | 97.29% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1,355 | 94.00% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 100.0% best hit $629 (0.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.29 on average: an expected loss of $2.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt