---
title: "Sashagray case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sashagray ($12.25) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 49 items with odds, observed 88.64% over 64 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Sashagray](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Sashagray

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray?window=all)

Price · $12.25

Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $11.51 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.64% · 64 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 28 openings · below min

7 days · 62 openings · below min

30 days · 64 openings · below min

since tracking started · 64 openings · below min

-0.5% 97.5% 195.5%

**Small sample.** 64 openings and 11.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray?window=24h) | 28 | 82.99% ±111.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray?window=7d) | 62 | 87.55% ±74.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray) | 64 | 88.64% ±73.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sashagray?window=all) | 64 | 88.64% ±73.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $30.6K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $13.1K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,485 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,286 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,050 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,958 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,695 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,078 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $767 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $600 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $537 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $499 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38,462 | $428 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,987 | $297 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 14,493 | $288 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $287 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 3,436 | $170 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 2,882 | $155 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 1,362 | $122 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,036 | $105 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 446 | $78.32 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 190 | $53.91 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 136 | $43.75 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $35.86 | 2.7% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $35.43 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $34.49 | 4.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $32.29 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $31.26 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $28.39 | 3.7% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $27.57 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $27.12 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $25.70 | 6.3% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.22× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $18.84 | 5.1% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $14.40 | 5.1% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $11.86 | 6.0% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.07× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $11.62 | 5.9% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $11.07 | 5.7% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $11.04 | 5.7% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $9.78 | 4.9% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $8.58 | 4.3% | 8 | 3.7 | 2.18× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $7.21 | 3.5% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $4.98 | 2.3% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.49× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.75 | 2.1% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.51× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.19 | 0.9% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $1.87 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.82 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $1.39 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $1.37 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $1.15 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/sashagray/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=sashagray)

[SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $8.58 0.70x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $11.04 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC

[Nova | Bloomstick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $11.62 0.95x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $7.21 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $2.19 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $4.98 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $14.40 1.18x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $2.19 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $35.86 2.93x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $12.25 $1.39 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $12.25 | 93.99% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $12.32 | 93.46% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.32 | 95.66% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 2.0% covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.8% Covert 1.5% restricted 18.9% #ffd700 0.0% classified 28.9% #4b69ff 0.9% pink 1.6% mil spec 6.7% #d32ee6 8.6% Mythical 10.3% Legendary 10.9% violet 4.7% uncommon 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt