---
title: "Scar 20 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Scar 20 ($0.40) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.35% from 36 items with odds, observed 76.35% over 169 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Scar 20](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Scar 20

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 90.35% · EV $0.36 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.35% · 169 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 76.35% ±15.11 169 openings

30 days · 76.35% ±15.11 169 openings

since tracking started · 76.35% ±15.11 169 openings

55.5% 96.3% 137.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20?window=24h) | 24 | 96.35% ±40.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20?window=7d) | 169 | 76.35% ±15.1 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20) | 169 | 76.35% ±15.1 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/scar20?window=all) | 169 | 76.35% ±15.1 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 245 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $74.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $28.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $27.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 90,909 | $20.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) | 1 in 37,037 | $12.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18,868 | $10.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 10,526 | $8.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,106 | $4.69 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 835 | $3.59 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-minimal-wear) | 1 in 488 | $2.83 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-factory-new) | 1 in 188 | $1.87 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 138 | $1.68 | 3.4% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $1.28 | 4.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $1.08 | 5.1% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $0.83 | 5.9% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.80× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.69 | 6.3% | 5 | 8.0 | 0.62× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.64 | 6.2% | 7 | 8.6 | 0.81× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.55 | 8.5% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.88× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.48 | 9.5% | 13 | 17.5 | 0.74× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.45 | 7.7% | 18 | 15.1 | 1.19× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-outbreak-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.43 | 9.5% | 22 | 19.6 | 1.12× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.37 | 4.0% | 13 | 9.7 | 1.34× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.29 | 3.2% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.27 | 2.9% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.83× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.26 | 2.8% | 9 | 9.7 | 0.93× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.22 | 2.4% | 9 | 9.7 | 0.93× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 2.2% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.83× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.18 | 2.0% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.14× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.13 | 1.4% | 14 | 9.7 | 1.45× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Caged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-caged-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.12 | 1.3% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.11 | 1.2% | 13 | 9.7 | 1.34× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.10 | 1.1% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.14× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.09 | 1.0% | 12 | 9.7 | 1.24× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.06 | 0.7% | 14 | 9.7 | 1.45× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.06 | 0.7% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.83× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.03 | 0.3% | 13 | 9.7 | 1.34× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/scar20/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=scar20)

[SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.40 $0.13 0.33x 2026-11-11 10:35 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-outbreak-factory-new) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.40 $0.43 1.08x 2026-11-11 10:35 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-factory-new) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.40 $0.55 1.38x 2026-11-11 10:35 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.40 $0.48 1.20x 2026-11-11 10:35 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-minimal-wear) [klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/klaud) $0.40 $0.10 0.25x 2026-11-11 10:35 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-minimal-wear) [Xlor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xlor) $0.40 $0.11 0.27x 2026-11-11 00:21 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-factory-new) [Xlor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xlor) $0.40 $0.55 1.38x 2026-11-11 00:20 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.40 $0.48 1.20x 2026-11-10 21:18 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-factory-new) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.40 $0.26 0.65x 2026-11-10 21:18 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-factory-new) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.40 $0.55 1.38x 2026-11-10 21:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.40 | 90.35% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.40 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 3.9% Uncommon 0.0% classified 0.0% mil spec 15.9% #4b69ff 6.5% pink 0.0% Common 4.1% consumer 10.9% milspec 5.6% #777777 0.7% restricted 1.7% blue 36.5% Rare 10.1% light blue 3.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.35 on average: an expected loss of $9.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt