---
title: "Sg 553 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sg 553 ($0.38) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.44% from 36 items with odds, observed 83.03% over 194 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Sg 553](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Sg 553

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553?window=all)

Price · $0.38

Advertised RTP · 95.44% · EV $0.36 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.03% · 194 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 83.03% ±12.52 194 openings

30 days · 83.03% ±12.52 194 openings

since tracking started · 83.03% ±12.52 194 openings

-0.5% 105.8% 212.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553?window=24h) | 2 | 88.16% ±123.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553?window=7d) | 194 | 83.03% ±12.5 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553) | 194 | 83.03% ±12.5 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sg553?window=all) | 194 | 83.03% ±12.5 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 261 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $56.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $43.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Traveler (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $21.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $16.25 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Traveler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $12.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Barricade (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-barricade-factory-new) | 1 in 25,641 | $8.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 11,765 | $6.81 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 4,032 | $4.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 1,825 | $3.59 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 712 | $2.85 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) | 1 in 328 | $2.08 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $1.48 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $1.27 | 3.9% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.72× |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $1.02 | 4.4% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.86 | 5.6% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.72 | 7.9% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.60 | 8.0% | 7 | 12.7 | 0.55× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.59 | 10.2% | 7 | 16.4 | 0.43× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.53 | 12.3% | 24 | 21.9 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.47 | 10.9% | 25 | 21.9 | 1.14× |
| [SG 553 \| Bleached (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.35 | 3.7% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.30 | 3.2% | 7 | 10.1 | 0.69× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.29 | 3.1% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.24 | 2.6% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.24 | 2.6% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.22 | 2.3% | 15 | 10.1 | 1.49× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.21 | 2.2% | 7 | 10.1 | 0.69× |
| [SG 553 \| Bleached (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.20 | 2.1% | 15 | 10.1 | 1.49× |
| [SG 553 \| Bleached (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 1.5% | 19 | 10.1 | 1.88× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.12 | 1.3% | 12 | 10.1 | 1.19× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.12 | 1.3% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.11 | 1.2% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.10 | 1.1% | 13 | 10.1 | 1.29× |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.08 | 0.9% | 5 | 10.1 | 0.50× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.07 | 0.7% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.04 | 0.4% | 13 | 10.1 | 1.29× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/sg553/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=sg553)

[SG 553 | Bleached (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-field-tested) [diinna99](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/diinna99) $0.38 $0.14 0.37x 2026-11-10 14:07 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) [diinna99](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/diinna99) $0.38 $0.53 1.39x 2026-11-10 14:07 UTC

[SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-factory-new) [diinna99](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/diinna99) $0.38 $0.12 0.32x 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC

[SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) [diinna99](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/diinna99) $0.38 $1.27 3.34x 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC

[SG 553 | Bleached (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-factory-new) [diinna99](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/diinna99) $0.38 $0.35 0.92x 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC

[SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) [Невесомость 😻](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%20%F0%9F%98%BB) $0.38 $0.22 0.58x 2026-11-10 13:27 UTC

[SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-minimal-wear) [Невесомость 😻](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%20%F0%9F%98%BB) $0.38 $0.29 0.76x 2026-11-10 13:26 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) [darken\_the\_silence 6](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/darken_the_silence%206) $0.38 $0.53 1.39x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC

[SG 553 | Night Camo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-factory-new) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.38 $0.04 0.11x 2026-11-10 02:47 UTC

[SG 553 | Night Camo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-factory-new) [Varkymer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Varkymer) $0.38 $0.04 0.11x 2026-11-10 02:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.38 | 95.44% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.38 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 0.1% #4b69ff 9.3% Industrial Grade 0.0% classified 0.0% Common 15.5% industrial 0.0% Uncommon 3.9% mil spec 0.1% violet 1.4% milspec 22.4% blue 15.0% Mythical 4.0% Rare 20.0% consumer 8.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.44 on average: an expected loss of $4.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt