--- title: "Shadow case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Shadow ($4.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.76% from 36 items with odds, observed 85.80% over 77 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Shadow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Shadow A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow?window=all) Price · $4.49 Advertised RTP · 90.76% · EV $4.08 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.80% · 77 openings, sample method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 56.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 77 openings · below min 30 days · 77 openings · below min since tracking started · 77 openings · below min -0.5% 63.8% 128.0% **Small sample.** 77 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow?window=24h) | 6 | 47.66% ±79.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow?window=7d) | 77 | 85.80% ±20.4 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow) | 77 | 85.80% ±20.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadow?window=all) | 77 | 85.80% ±20.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $531 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $228 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $208 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $206 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29,412 | $140 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,804 | $89.25 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $66.09 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 3,690 | $62.30 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 1,037 | $41.25 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 404 | $29.06 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 320 | $26.47 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 180 | $20.09 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $15.81 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $14.93 | 3.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $11.72 | 5.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.49× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $8.58 | 6.2% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $6.99 | 7.3% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $6.80 | 7.1% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $6.12 | 8.2% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.20× | | [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $5.41 | 7.4% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $5.00 | 9.4% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× | | [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $4.76 | 9.8% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.53 | 3.5% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.75 | 2.7% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.94× | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.48 | 2.5% | 7 | 3.1 | 2.26× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.47 | 2.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.98 | 2.0% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× | | [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.67 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.60 | 1.6% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.50 | 1.5% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.94× | | [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.24 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.04 | 1.0% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× | | [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.90 | 0.9% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.61× | | [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.85 | 0.8% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.74 | 0.7% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.56 | 0.6% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/shadow/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=shadow) [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $0.85 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $6.12 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $1.50 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) [outsone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/outsone) $4.49 $1.04 0.23x 2026-11-10 19:31 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) [outsone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/outsone) $4.49 $2.48 0.55x 2026-11-10 19:31 UTC [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) [outsone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/outsone) $4.49 $0.85 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:30 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $4.49 $2.75 0.61x 2026-11-09 14:35 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) [Илья Зотов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%98%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D0%97%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B2) $4.49 $3.53 0.79x 2026-11-09 05:19 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) [Илья Зотов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%98%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%8F%20%D0%97%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B2) $4.49 $29.06 6.47x 2026-11-09 05:19 UTC [SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) [uu.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/uu.) $4.49 $14.93 3.33x 2026-11-08 20:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $4.49 | 90.76% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.49 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% Covert 0.1% classified 4.4% restricted 28.6% #d32ee6 7.2% violet 5.4% blue 5.6% Mythical 16.4% #4b69ff 4.0% mil spec 16.1% Rare 12.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.76 on average: an expected loss of $9.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt