---
title: "Shadowkek case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Shadowkek ($8.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.05% from 42 items with odds, observed 92.66% over 395 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Shadowkek](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Shadowkek

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek?window=all)

Price · $8.49

Advertised RTP · 89.05% · EV $7.56 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.66% · 395 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 59 openings · below min

7 days · 90.35% ±9.69 206 openings

30 days · 92.66% ±7.06 395 openings

since tracking started · 92.66% ±7.06 395 openings

75.5% 94.2% 113.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek?window=24h) | 59 | 94.07% ±18.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek?window=7d) | 206 | 90.35% ±9.69 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek) | 395 | 92.66% ±7.06 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shadowkek?window=all) | 395 | 92.66% ±7.06 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 395 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $502 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $380 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $252 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $193 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $144 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 25,641 | $118 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,519 | $81.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,559 | $67.17 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,757 | $56.48 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 751 | $45.83 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 502 | $37.05 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 410 | $35.20 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 438 | $34.89 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 375 | $34.37 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $31.61 | 1.5% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.09× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 236 | $28.15 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $23.08 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $20.49 | 2.7% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $16.80 | 3.2% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.42× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $14.19 | 4.5% | 13 | 9.5 | 1.37× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $12.41 | 8.6% | 18 | 20.7 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $11.37 | 6.2% | 22 | 16.3 | 1.35× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $10.58 | 8.9% | 26 | 25.0 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $10.44 | 4.5% | 11 | 12.9 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $10.03 | 6.8% | 22 | 20.4 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $9.13 | 8.4% | 19 | 27.4 | 0.69× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $9.09 | 5.3% | 14 | 17.5 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $5.86 | 5.3% | 19 | 27.0 | 0.70× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $5.62 | 5.1% | 23 | 27.2 | 0.84× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $5.43 | 5.1% | 37 | 28.1 | 1.31× |
| [FAMAS \| Night Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $4.88 | 3.9% | 29 | 24.0 | 1.21× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $3.39 | 1.9% | 18 | 16.4 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.37 | 1.9% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $2.55 | 1.1% | 8 | 12.3 | 0.65× |
| [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $2.53 | 1.1% | 10 | 12.7 | 0.78× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $2.30 | 1.0% | 18 | 13.6 | 1.32× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $2.26 | 0.8% | 4 | 10.0 | 0.40× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $2.23 | 0.8% | 12 | 10.3 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $1.63 | 0.4% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $1.33 | 0.2% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $1.33 | 0.3% | 13 | 7.5 | 1.74× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $1.22 | 0.3% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/shadowkek/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=shadowkek)

[MAC-10 | Whitefish (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $2.26 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $9.13 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $12.41 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $5.43 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $31.61 3.72x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $14.19 1.67x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $10.58 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $10.44 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $5.43 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[FAMAS | Night Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $8.49 $4.88 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $8.49 | 89.05% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.49 | 92.72% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% classified 11.1% mil spec 12.2% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.4% blue 1.1% Legendary 1.0% #d32ee6 8.3% uncommon 2.4% light blue 5.2% pink 4.1% milspec 6.3% #4b69ff 3.3% restricted 5.2% Consumer Grade 13.0% consumer 7.1% #8847ff 6.1% Rare 3.1% Industrial Grade 5.3% violet 2.6% Mythical 1.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.05 on average: an expected loss of $10.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt