--- title: "Shatteredweb case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shatteredweb ($4.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.74% from 36 items with odds, observed 92.49% over 132 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Shatteredweb](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Shatteredweb A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb?window=all) Price · $4.99 Advertised RTP · 92.74% · EV $4.63 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.49% · 132 openings, sample method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 58.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 132 openings · below min 30 days · 132 openings · below min since tracking started · 132 openings · below min -0.5% 166.3% 333.0% **Small sample.** 132 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb?window=24h) | 1 | 117.23% ±215.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb?window=7d) | 132 | 92.49% ±14.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb) | 132 | 92.49% ±14.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/shatteredweb?window=all) | 132 | 92.49% ±14.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 132 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $680 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $488 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $345 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55,556 | $224 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22,727 | $166 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,346 | $123 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,922 | $86.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 1,506 | $57.59 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 810 | $46.44 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 447 | $37.34 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 306 | $34.26 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $19.16 | 4.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $16.25 | 4.3% | 7 | 1.6 | 4.32× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $12.34 | 5.2% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $11.13 | 5.8% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× | | [R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-memento-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $10.55 | 6.0% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× | | [Dual Berettas \| Balance (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $7.65 | 7.2% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.04× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $7.07 | 6.9% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $5.85 | 7.8% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.86× | | [M249 \| Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.22 | 9.0% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $5.01 | 8.9% | 8 | 10.8 | 0.74× | | [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $4.44 | 3.8% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× | | [Nova \| Plume (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-plume-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.37 | 2.9% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.36 | 2.8% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× | | [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.07 | 2.6% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× | | [SCAR-20 \| Torn (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-torn-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.56 | 2.2% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× | | [R8 Revolver \| Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-memento-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.54 | 2.2% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× | | [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.05 | 1.7% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.82 | 1.5% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [Nova \| Plume (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-plume-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.73 | 1.5% | 1 | 5.2 | 0.19× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.71 | 1.4% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× | | [Dual Berettas \| Balance (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.59 | 1.3% | 9 | 5.2 | 1.74× | | [M249 \| Warbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.53 | 1.3% | 9 | 5.2 | 1.74× | | [SCAR-20 \| Torn (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-torn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.90 | 0.8% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× | | [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.90 | 0.8% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× | | [R8 Revolver \| Memento (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-memento-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.79 | 0.7% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/shatteredweb/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=shatteredweb) [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [Taba](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Taba) $4.99 $5.85 1.17x 2026-11-11 08:25 UTC [Dual Berettas | Balance (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-factory-new) [Незнающий побед](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8E%D1%89%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B4) $4.99 $7.65 1.53x 2026-11-09 22:10 UTC [PP-Bizon | Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) [gogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/gogi) $4.99 $4.44 0.89x 2026-11-09 07:27 UTC [G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) [333umph](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/333umph) $4.99 $2.05 0.41x 2026-11-07 17:17 UTC [PP-Bizon | Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) [VATA\_S\_PUPKA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/VATA_S_PUPKA) $4.99 $4.44 0.89x 2026-11-07 13:50 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $4.99 $1.82 0.36x 2026-11-07 09:39 UTC [PP-Bizon | Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) [еблодав 3000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B2%203000) $4.99 $4.44 0.89x 2026-11-07 02:12 UTC [Dual Berettas | Balance (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $4.99 $7.65 1.53x 2026-11-06 12:57 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $4.99 $1.82 0.36x 2026-11-06 12:57 UTC [Dual Berettas | Balance (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $4.99 $7.65 1.53x 2026-11-06 12:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $4.99 | 92.74% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.99 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% rare 0.0% covert knife 0.0% Covert 0.0% covert 0.3% Immortal 0.1% classified 2.5% restricted 38.9% mil spec 58.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.74 on average: an expected loss of $7.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt