---
title: "Silkie case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Silkie ($19.60) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.20% from 49 items with odds, observed 99.92% over 246 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Silkie](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Silkie

A case on CSGORUN (chickens), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie?window=all)

Price · $19.60

Advertised RTP · 95.20% · EV $18.66 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.92% · 246 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 33 openings · below min

7 days · 101.36% ±14.25 206 openings

30 days · 99.92% ±13.06 246 openings

since tracking started · 99.92% ±13.06 246 openings

84.0% 120.2% 156.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie?window=24h) | 33 | 120.20% ±35.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie?window=7d) | 206 | 101.36% ±14.3 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie) | 246 | 99.92% ±13.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/silkie?window=all) | 246 | 99.92% ±13.1 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 246 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $2,208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,732 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,260 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,246 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111,111 | $893 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55,556 | $668 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45,455 | $662 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,000 | $349 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,536 | $303 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 5,348 | $290 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,195 | $232 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 1,751 | $207 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 722 | $133 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 496 | $118 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-red-racer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 361 | $105 | 1.6% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 419 | $99.02 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 251 | $86.54 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 178 | $70.70 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $66.36 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 153 | $61.69 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $56.96 | 2.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $49.57 | 2.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $48.44 | 2.6% | 9 | 2.4 | 3.69× |
| [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $41.89 | 3.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $40.35 | 2.8% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.32× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $34.90 | 3.8% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $32.21 | 4.3% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $31.61 | 3.6% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.52× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $29.39 | 2.4% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $28.30 | 4.0% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $27.05 | 6.5% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $24.90 | 4.2% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $24.78 | 4.0% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $23.99 | 4.1% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $22.79 | 4.5% | 16 | 9.1 | 1.77× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $19.16 | 4.6% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $18.66 | 4.5% | 13 | 11.0 | 1.18× |
| [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $14.78 | 3.5% | 13 | 11.0 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $12.89 | 3.1% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $11.75 | 2.8% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $10.30 | 2.5% | 14 | 11.0 | 1.27× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $10.28 | 2.5% | 5 | 11.0 | 0.45× |
| [Nova \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $10.26 | 2.5% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $4.69 | 1.1% | 7 | 11.1 | 0.63× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $4.12 | 1.0% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $3.65 | 0.9% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $2.59 | 0.6% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.25 | 0.1% | 13 | 11.2 | 1.16× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 17 | 11.4 | 1.49× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/silkie/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=silkie)

[G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-field-tested) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $19.60 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[P2000 | Red FragCam (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-factory-new) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $19.60 $14.78 0.75x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[AUG | Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-well-worn) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $19.60 $2.59 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) [ADT x Morty](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ADT%20x%20Morty) $19.60 $10.26 0.52x 2026-11-11 10:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.60 $22.79 1.16x 2026-11-11 10:10 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-battle-scarred) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.60 $99.02 5.05x 2026-11-11 10:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.60 $23.99 1.22x 2026-11-11 10:10 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-well-worn) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.60 $18.66 0.95x 2026-11-11 10:10 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.60 $19.16 0.98x 2026-11-11 10:10 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.60 $27.05 1.38x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $19.60 | 95.20% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.60 | 96.54% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.8% gold 0.0% extraordinary 1.2% classified 22.1% Immortal 0.0% sunny 0.0% Extraordinary 0.1% covert knife 0.4% #ffd700 0.7% Rare 1.4% rare 1.3% restricted 14.2% Restricted 2.6% industrial 8.9% mil spec 7.6% Ancient 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.5% #d32ee6 4.5% pink 4.5% violet 4.5% milspec 4.5% #4b69ff 4.6% Common 4.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.20 on average: an expected loss of $4.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt