---
title: "Smoked case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Smoked ($10.71) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.94% from 42 items with odds, observed 83.58% over 58 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Smoked](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Smoked

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked?window=all)

Price · $10.71

Advertised RTP · 93.94% · EV $10.06 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.58% · 58 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 51 openings · below min

30 days · 58 openings · below min

since tracking started · 58 openings · below min

29.5% 93.3% 157.0%

**Small sample.** 58 openings and 13.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked?window=24h) | 24 | 93.38% ±63.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked?window=7d) | 51 | 75.89% ±43.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked) | 58 | 83.58% ±40.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/smoked?window=all) | 58 | 83.58% ±40.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,944 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,910 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,780 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,282 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,729 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,340 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $689 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $415 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 52,632 | $383 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-factory-new) | 1 in 13,514 | $219 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) | 1 in 5,525 | $195 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-field-tested) | 1 in 623 | $79.03 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 471 | $73.43 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 299 | $60.10 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 296 | $59.25 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $56.28 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193 | $49.97 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 152 | $45.86 | 3.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $40.42 | 3.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $34.36 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $31.61 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $27.57 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $26.06 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $20.49 | 4.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $16.87 | 4.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $14.10 | 6.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $11.62 | 6.7% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $11.34 | 6.7% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $10.32 | 6.5% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.64× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $9.72 | 6.0% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $9.43 | 5.9% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $7.22 | 4.1% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $5.46 | 2.9% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $5.39 | 2.9% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.67 | 1.8% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.63 | 1.8% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.70× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $2.78 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.69 | 1.2% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.61 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $1.84 | 0.8% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.98 | 0.3% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.44× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.98 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/smoked/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=smoked)

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $0.98 0.09x 2026-11-10 21:15 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $5.39 0.50x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $14.10 1.32x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $9.72 0.91x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Crossfade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-battle-scarred) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $1.84 0.17x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $9.43 0.88x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $7.22 0.67x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $2.69 0.25x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $10.32 0.96x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $10.71 $3.63 0.34x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $10.71 | 93.94% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.93 | 92.05% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.93 | 94.47% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% covert 2.7% legendary 0.0% classified 14.0% extraordinary 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% Immortal 0.2% rare 0.2% restricted 5.2% covert knife 0.5% red 0.7% uncommon 6.9% mil spec 10.4% Legendary 13.1% pink 12.8% Classified 6.3% violet 5.8% Mythical 5.4% #4b69ff 8.0% common 4.1% #8847ff 3.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.94 on average: an expected loss of $6.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt