---
title: "Sololeveling case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Sololeveling ($0.58) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.41% from 42 items with odds, observed 91.86% over 1,568 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Sololeveling](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Sololeveling

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling?window=all)

Price · $0.58

Advertised RTP · 92.41% · EV $0.54 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.86% · 1,568 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 74 openings · below min

7 days · 92.82% ±9.56 1,013 openings

30 days · 91.86% ±7.69 1,568 openings

since tracking started · 91.86% ±7.69 1,568 openings

64.5% 100.3% 136.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling?window=24h) | 74 | 100.28% ±35.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling?window=7d) | 1,013 | 92.82% ±9.56 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling) | 1,568 | 91.86% ±7.69 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sololeveling?window=all) | 1,568 | 91.86% ±7.69 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,568 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $476 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $292 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $236 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $133 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $99.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $79.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $70.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $68.68 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $52.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200,000 | $41.84 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 76,923 | $26.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37,037 | $21.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 6,711 | $10.20 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,623 | $10.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 2,611 | $7.81 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-well-worn) | 1 in 2,288 | $7.07 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 1,126 | $5.39 | 0.9% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 1,133 | $5.16 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 608 | $4.53 | 1.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 321 | $3.43 | 2.0% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | $2.68 | 2.2% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $1.51 | 4.0% | 42 | 22.5 | 1.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $1.51 | 4.0% | 42 | 22.5 | 1.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $1.45 | 3.8% | 22 | 22.3 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $1.37 | 4.9% | 17 | 30.3 | 0.56× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $1.08 | 4.6% | 32 | 35.7 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| Salamanders sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-salamanders) | 1 in 39 | $1.06 | 5.1% | 34 | 40.3 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $1.04 | 3.8% | 27 | 30.7 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $1.02 | 5.2% | 31 | 42.9 | 0.72× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.86 | 5.8% | 56 | 56.8 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.85 | 7.8% | 75 | 77.5 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.64 | 5.4% | 77 | 71.3 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.59 | 7.7% | 113 | 109.1 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.51 | 6.6% | 137 | 109.1 | 1.26× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.49 | 6.4% | 116 | 109.2 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.23 | 3.0% | 110 | 109.7 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.20 | 2.6% | 116 | 109.6 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.17 | 2.2% | 121 | 109.7 | 1.10× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.15 | 2.0% | 103 | 109.8 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.15 | 2.0% | 103 | 109.7 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Creep (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.14 | 1.8% | 104 | 109.8 | 0.95× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.12 | 1.6% | 110 | 110.5 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/sololeveling/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=sololeveling)

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.17 0.29x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.59 1.02x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.17 0.29x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.15 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[AUG | Creep (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-field-tested) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.14 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Briefing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-battle-scarred) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.23 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-field-tested) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.15 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[SSG 08 | Zeno (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-minimal-wear) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.49 0.84x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[SSG 08 | Zeno (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-minimal-wear) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.49 0.84x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) [\_КАХА\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/_%D0%9A%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%90_) $0.58 $0.85 1.47x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.58 | 92.41% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.57 | 94.03% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.57 | 94.83% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 0.0% epic 0.0% Ancient 0.0% covert 0.0% gold 0.0% pink 0.0% classified 0.5% industrial 0.0% Mythical 2.9% violet 11.0% blue 23.9% uncommon 1.4% #4b69ff 8.9% #8847ff 2.3% other 2.6% restricted 4.5% Rare 7.0% Restricted 7.0% milspec 21.0% blueLight 7.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.41 on average: an expected loss of $7.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt