---
title: "Spectrum case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Spectrum ($8.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.05% from 38 items with odds, observed 67.71% over 15 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Spectrum](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Spectrum

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum?window=all)

Price · $8.99

Advertised RTP · 94.05% · EV $8.46 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 67.71% · 15 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 54.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 15 openings · below min

30 days · 15 openings · below min

since tracking started · 15 openings · below min

3.5% 111.5% 219.5%

**Small sample.** 15 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum?window=24h) | 3 | 111.49% ±107.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum?window=7d) | 15 | 67.71% ±48.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum) | 15 | 67.71% ±48.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spectrum?window=all) | 15 | 67.71% ±48.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $517 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $421 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $289 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90,909 | $231 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38,462 | $168 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 9,434 | $114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $105 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,915 | $87.89 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 2,128 | $71.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,323 | $67.33 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,416 | $66.48 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 757 | $61.02 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 815 | $58.42 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 943 | $57.68 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 508 | $50.51 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 367 | $46.66 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 325 | $44.47 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 216 | $35.62 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $18.95 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $17.23 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $15.24 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $13.86 | 11.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $13.52 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $13.49 | 11.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $13.00 | 11.0% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $12.20 | 11.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $5.89 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $4.42 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $3.21 | 1.7% | 3 | 0.7 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.67 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.19 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.06 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.98 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Zander (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-zander-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.96 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.70 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.43 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.37 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.25 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/spectrum/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=spectrum)

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) [Aleksey Warnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksey%20Warnov) $8.99 $13.86 1.54x 2026-11-10 23:57 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) [Aleksey Warnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksey%20Warnov) $8.99 $13.00 1.45x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) [neX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neX) $8.99 $3.21 0.36x 2026-11-10 16:03 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) [java777](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/java777) $8.99 $3.21 0.36x 2026-11-10 09:22 UTC

[M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $8.99 $1.98 0.22x 2026-11-10 07:23 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) [ОГУРЧИК](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D0%93%D0%A3%D0%A0%D0%A7%D0%98%D0%9A) $8.99 $13.00 1.45x 2026-11-07 19:44 UTC

[XM1014 | Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) [Psycho3303](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Psycho3303) $8.99 $1.43 0.16x 2026-11-07 11:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | Scaffold (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-minimal-wear) [Psycho3303](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Psycho3303) $8.99 $2.06 0.23x 2026-11-07 11:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Last Dive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-factory-new) [Psycho3303](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Psycho3303) $8.99 $2.67 0.30x 2026-11-07 11:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | Scaffold (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-minimal-wear) [Psycho3303](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Psycho3303) $8.99 $2.06 0.23x 2026-11-07 11:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $8.99 | 94.05% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $8.99 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.2% covert knife 0.0% sunny 0.0% Covert 0.0% gold 0.0% #ffd700 0.1% classified 37.3% Legendary 7.2% restricted 31.6% Mythical 13.5% mil spec 4.5% Mil Spec Grade 4.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.05 on average: an expected loss of $5.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt