---
title: "Spirit ewc case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Spirit ewc ($0.19) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.13% from 42 items with odds, observed 94.59% over 7,190 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Spirit ewc](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Spirit ewc

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc?window=all)

Price · $0.19

Advertised RTP · 92.13% · EV $0.18 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.59% · 7,190 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.60% ±18.66 660 openings

7 days · 90.55% ±7.02 4,664 openings

30 days · 94.59% ±5.65 7,190 openings

since tracking started · 94.59% ±5.65 7,190 openings

67.5% 86.8% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc?window=24h) | 660 | 86.60% ±18.7 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc?window=7d) | 4,664 | 90.55% ±7.02 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc) | 7,190 | 94.59% ±5.65 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-ewc?window=all) | 7,190 | 94.59% ±5.65 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,190 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $330 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $207 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $120 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $60.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $28.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 200,000 | $19.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $15.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $11.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 83,333 | $10.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45,455 | $8.28 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 25,641 | $5.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,197 | $3.90 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,711 | $3.53 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.87× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 1,949 | $2.36 | 0.7% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 2,506 | $2.32 | 0.5% | 10 | 2.9 | 3.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 1,403 | $1.83 | 0.7% | 8 | 5.1 | 1.56× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-well-worn) | 1 in 276 | $1.25 | 2.6% | 30 | 26.1 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 256 | $1.05 | 2.3% | 25 | 28.1 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 237 | $1.02 | 2.5% | 30 | 30.3 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 160 | $0.81 | 2.9% | 51 | 45.0 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $0.63 | 3.0% | 56 | 60.7 | 0.92× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $0.58 | 3.4% | 58 | 74.1 | 0.78× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.45 | 5.1% | 129 | 141.8 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $0.40 | 4.3% | 148 | 136.3 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $0.39 | 4.4% | 144 | 141.8 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.35 | 4.9% | 206 | 175.6 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.31 | 5.5% | 233 | 224.7 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $0.31 | 4.8% | 236 | 192.9 | 1.22× |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.18 | 5.3% | 379 | 369.2 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.17 | 6.2% | 475 | 459.5 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.15 | 5.3% | 475 | 447.4 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.15 | 5.3% | 419 | 447.4 | 0.94× |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.14 | 5.0% | 455 | 451.7 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.11 | 3.7% | 441 | 427.2 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.11 | 3.7% | 384 | 427.2 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| donk \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-donk-shanghai-2024) | 1 in 17 | $0.09 | 3.0% | 462 | 421.0 | 1.10× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.09 | 3.0% | 390 | 421.0 | 0.93× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.09 | 3.1% | 435 | 432.8 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bee-tron-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.07 | 2.4% | 405 | 427.2 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Spirit \| 2020 RMR sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spirit-2020-rmr) | 1 in 18 | $0.06 | 1.9% | 360 | 398.2 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.06 | 1.9% | 397 | 406.7 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Team Spirit \| Shanghai 2024 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-shanghai-2024) | 1 in 20 | $0.03 | 0.9% | 341 | 361.8 | 0.94× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/spirit_ewc/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=spirit-ewc)

[Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) [SCHUMACHER.csrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SCHUMACHER.csrun) $0.19 $0.09 0.47x 2026-11-11 19:59 UTC

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-minimal-wear) [SCHUMACHER.csrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SCHUMACHER.csrun) $0.19 $0.14 0.74x 2026-11-11 19:59 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [SCHUMACHER.csrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SCHUMACHER.csrun) $0.19 $0.11 0.58x 2026-11-11 19:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) [SCHUMACHER.csrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SCHUMACHER.csrun) $0.19 $0.40 2.11x 2026-11-11 19:59 UTC

[Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMR sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spirit-2020-rmr) [SCHUMACHER.csrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SCHUMACHER.csrun) $0.19 $0.06 0.32x 2026-11-11 19:59 UTC

[Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMR sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spirit-2020-rmr) [Mr.Phonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Phonk) $0.19 $0.06 0.32x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) [Mr.Phonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Phonk) $0.19 $0.17 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) [Mr.Phonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Phonk) $0.19 $0.11 0.58x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[MP9 | Bee-Tron (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bee-tron-factory-new) [Mr.Phonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Phonk) $0.19 $0.07 0.37x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) [Mr.Phonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Phonk) $0.19 $0.35 1.84x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.19 | 92.13% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.19 | 92.04% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 7 5.5% gold 0.0% legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.0% pink 0.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.0% uncommon 0.0% Mythical 2.4% restricted 1.5% violet 2.5% milspec 12.3% Rare 8.5% light blue 4.0% mil spec 1.9% #4b69ff 15.3% #5e98d9 11.4% Uncommon 12.2% #b0c3d9 5.9% Common 5.9% common 5.7% other 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.13 on average: an expected loss of $7.87 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt