---
title: "Spirit team case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Spirit team ($0.18) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.78% from 42 items with odds, observed 104.34% over 5,726 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Spirit team](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Spirit team

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team?window=all)

Price · $0.18

Advertised RTP · 90.78% · EV $0.16 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 104.34% · 5,726 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.15% ±33.24 113 openings

7 days · 95.21% ±7.45 2,389 openings

30 days · 104.34% ±5.07 5,726 openings

since tracking started · 104.34% ±5.07 5,726 openings

63.5% 97.3% 131.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 96.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (99.27% – 109.41%, 5,726 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team?window=24h) | 113 | 97.15% ±33.2 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team?window=7d) | 2,389 | 95.21% ±7.45 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team) | 5,726 | 104.34% ±5.07 | +3.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/spirit-team?window=all) | 5,726 | 104.34% ±5.07 | +3.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,726 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $223 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $102 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-chocolate-chesterfield-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $72.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $62.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $40.84 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $17.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $13.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $11.07 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76,923 | $8.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43,478 | $7.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $6.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 15,385 | $4.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 1 in 8,065 | $3.74 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 3,984 | $2.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-field-tested) | 1 in 3,247 | $2.19 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-well-worn) | 1 in 1,808 | $1.64 | 0.6% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.58× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 331 | $0.95 | 1.8% | 16 | 17.3 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 340 | $0.95 | 1.7% | 16 | 16.8 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 149 | $0.68 | 2.8% | 39 | 38.3 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $0.63 | 2.8% | 57 | 41.1 | 1.39× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $0.60 | 3.1% | 63 | 48.9 | 1.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $0.49 | 3.9% | 91 | 74.2 | 1.23× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.48 | 4.1% | 75 | 79.5 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.46 | 3.9% | 100 | 79.5 | 1.26× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $0.44 | 3.6% | 106 | 76.8 | 1.38× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $0.40 | 3.4% | 88 | 79.5 | 1.11× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.25 | 6.2% | 232 | 232.8 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.25 | 5.4% | 221 | 203.7 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| zweih \| Austin 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zweih-austin-2025) | 1 in 18 | $0.21 | 7.0% | 289 | 310.1 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Team Spirit \| Austin 2025 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-austin-2025) | 1 in 16 | $0.18 | 6.7% | 377 | 349.2 | 1.08× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.18 | 5.6% | 330 | 291.1 | 1.13× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.16 | 7.1% | 438 | 415.9 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Marsh (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.14 | 6.0% | 379 | 398.1 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.14 | 6.1% | 408 | 404.4 | 1.01× |
| [MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-snow-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.13 | 5.7% | 424 | 410.3 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.09 | 3.5% | 356 | 368.3 | 0.97× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.06 | 2.2% | 327 | 337.9 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.06 | 2.2% | 355 | 349.2 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| zont1x \| Austin 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zont1x-austin-2025) | 1 in 20 | $0.04 | 1.2% | 237 | 291.8 | 0.81× |
| [Sticker \| sh1ro \| Austin 2025 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sh1ro-austin-2025) | 1 in 21 | $0.03 | 0.9% | 210 | 267.8 | 0.78× |
| [Sticker \| Grayhound Gaming \| Paris 2023 sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-grayhound-gaming-paris-2023) | 1 in 21 | $0.01 | 0.3% | 258 | 267.8 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| chopper \| Austin 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chopper-austin-2025) | 1 in 21 | $0.01 | 0.3% | 224 | 267.8 | 0.84× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/spirit_team/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) [lsd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/lsd) $0.16 $11.07 69.19x 2026-11-04 01:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=spirit-team)

[M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-minimal-wear) [8laxeevich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/8laxeevich) $0.18 $0.14 0.78x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[Sticker | sh1ro | Austin 2025 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sh1ro-austin-2025) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Loading...) $0.18 $0.03 0.17x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-well-worn) [Влад Жмуров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%20%D0%96%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.18 $0.06 0.33x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC

[Sticker | zont1x | Austin 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zont1x-austin-2025) [Влад Жмуров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%20%D0%96%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.18 $0.04 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-well-worn) [Влад Жмуров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%20%D0%96%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.18 $0.06 0.33x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC

[SSG 08 | Memorial (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-well-worn) [Влад Жмуров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%20%D0%96%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.18 $0.06 0.33x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[Sticker | zont1x | Austin 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zont1x-austin-2025) [Влад Жмуров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%20%D0%96%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.18 $0.04 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[Sticker | sh1ro | Austin 2025 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sh1ro-austin-2025) [Влад Жмуров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%20%D0%96%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.18 $0.03 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[Sticker | Team Spirit | Austin 2025 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-austin-2025) [Влад Жмуров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%20%D0%96%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.18 $0.18 1.00x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[P2000 | Marsh (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-factory-new) [Влад Жмуров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%20%D0%96%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.18 $0.14 0.78x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.18 | 90.78% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.16 | 102.13% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.16 | 98.04% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.7% 7 4.7% mil spec 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 0.0% uncommon 4.1% Mythical 0.9% pink 0.4% #d32ce6 0.0% violet 2.8% restricted 1.7% #8847ff 0.7% blue 1.3% Uncommon 8.5% milspec 15.6% other 15.2% Rare 10.8% #4b69ff 5.1% light blue 7.3% #5e98d9 14.1% #b0c3d9 6.4% best hit $11.07 (69.19x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.78 on average: an expected loss of $9.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt