---
title: "Stiletto case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Stiletto ($314.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.58% from 30 items with odds, observed 88.59% over 11 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Stiletto](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Stiletto

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto?window=all)

Price · $314.99

Advertised RTP · 93.58% · EV $294.78 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.59% · 11 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 54.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 11 openings · below min

30 days · 11 openings · below min

since tracking started · 11 openings · below min

54.0% 88.5% 123.0%

**Small sample.** 11 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto?window=7d) | 11 | 88.59% ±33.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto) | 11 | 88.59% ±33.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stiletto?window=all) | 11 | 88.59% ±33.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,083 | $1,826 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,171 | $1,760 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 267 | $1,103 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 138 | $849 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · Knives · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 130 | $829 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $718 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $611 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 59 | $604 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 45 | $602 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $546 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $461 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $427 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $400 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $371 | 7.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $371 | 7.6% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $363 | 7.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $350 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $283 | 4.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $222 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $202 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $167 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $164 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $150 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $144 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $141 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $140 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $139 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $133 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $131 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $127 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/stiletto/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $315 $604 1.92x 2026-11-08 13:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=stiletto)

[★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $315 $371 1.18x 2026-11-08 22:03 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $315 $127 0.40x 2026-11-08 22:03 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $315 $167 0.53x 2026-11-08 22:03 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $315 $133 0.42x 2026-11-08 13:21 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $315 $283 0.90x 2026-11-08 13:20 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $315 $371 1.18x 2026-11-08 13:20 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $315 $371 1.18x 2026-11-08 13:20 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $315 $139 0.44x 2026-11-08 13:20 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $315 $363 1.15x 2026-11-08 13:20 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $315 $140 0.45x 2026-11-08 13:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $315 | 93.58% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $315 | 94.00% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 41.5% Knives 0.8% covert knife 54.9% sunny 2.8% best hit $604 (1.92x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.58 on average: an expected loss of $6.42 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt