--- title: "Stmarc case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Stmarc ($225.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.81% from 29 items with odds, observed 135.92% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Stmarc](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Stmarc A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc?window=all) Price · $225.99 Advertised RTP · 93.81% · EV $212.01 from 29 items Observed RTP, 30d · 135.92% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min 15.5% 136.0% 256.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc?window=7d) | 1 | 135.92% ±119.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc) | 1 | 135.92% ±119.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/stmarc?window=all) | 1 | 135.92% ±119.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $15.6K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $10.7K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $7,895 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 9,346 | $2,769 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,780 | $2,504 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $2,432 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $435 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $348 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $348 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $347 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $347 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $343 | 10.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $307 | 11.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $302 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $296 | 10.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [FAMAS \| Sundown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $125 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $103 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $94.28 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $93.05 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $87.35 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $84.96 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $82.72 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $75.05 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Sundown (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $66.14 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $66.13 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $52.70 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $52.23 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $42.38 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-factory-new) | 1 in 314 | $19.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/stmarc/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=stmarc) [AUG | Midnight Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-field-tested) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $226 $307 1.36x 2026-11-09 23:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $226 | 93.81% | 29 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $226 | 94.00% | 29 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.1% restricted 49.9% #4b69ff 16.1% mil spec 14.0% Rare 4.1% Mil Spec Grade 7.4% blue 2.7% milspec 2.0% other 2.0% industrial 1.3% consumer 0.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.81 on average: an expected loss of $6.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt