--- title: "Strogo case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Strogo ($14.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.11% from 42 items with odds, observed 101.99% over 567 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Strogo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Strogo A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo?window=all) Price · $14.49 Advertised RTP · 93.11% · EV $13.49 from 42 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.99% · 567 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 31 openings · below min 7 days · 96.29% ±15.70 157 openings 30 days · 101.99% ±8.29 567 openings since tracking started · 101.99% ±8.29 567 openings 47.5% 83.5% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo?window=24h) | 31 | 83.58% ±35.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo?window=7d) | 157 | 96.29% ±15.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo) | 567 | 101.99% ±8.29 | +2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/strogo?window=all) | 567 | 101.99% ±8.29 | +2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 567 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $820 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $575 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $405 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34,483 | $340 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 14,925 | $247 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,848 | $184 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,558 | $147 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,073 | $102 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 801 | $97.93 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 533 | $85.89 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.88× | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 341 | $84.96 | 1.8% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.81× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 210 | $70.96 | 2.5% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 318 | $69.53 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 237 | $65.08 | 2.0% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $57.80 | 2.0% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.51× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $54.17 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $43.21 | 2.7% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $43.01 | 3.0% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $42.09 | 2.6% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $36.03 | 3.9% | 12 | 8.2 | 1.47× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $32.03 | 4.4% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $30.41 | 3.7% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.75× | | [P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $24.90 | 5.6% | 21 | 17.1 | 1.23× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $23.45 | 4.4% | 12 | 14.3 | 0.84× | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $18.01 | 7.0% | 20 | 29.7 | 0.67× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $17.23 | 7.6% | 43 | 33.9 | 1.27× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $16.37 | 6.7% | 34 | 31.4 | 1.08× | | [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $15.16 | 8.9% | 50 | 45.1 | 1.11× | | [Nova \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $10.26 | 3.2% | 22 | 24.0 | 0.92× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $8.50 | 2.7% | 24 | 24.0 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $8.04 | 2.5% | 29 | 24.0 | 1.21× | | [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $6.88 | 2.2% | 22 | 24.0 | 0.92× | | [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $6.08 | 1.9% | 27 | 24.0 | 1.12× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $5.98 | 1.9% | 26 | 24.0 | 1.08× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $5.34 | 1.7% | 24 | 24.0 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $4.99 | 1.6% | 25 | 24.0 | 1.04× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $4.70 | 1.5% | 28 | 24.0 | 1.17× | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.32 | 1.4% | 24 | 24.0 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.65 | 1.1% | 19 | 24.0 | 0.79× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.32 | 1.0% | 18 | 24.0 | 0.75× | | [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.01 | 0.6% | 13 | 24.0 | 0.54× | | [UMP-45 \| Mechanism (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mechanism-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.85 | 0.6% | 19 | 24.0 | 0.79× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/strogo/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=strogo) [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.49 $5.34 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.49 $5.34 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.49 $17.23 1.19x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.49 $15.16 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [SSG 08 | Red Stone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-minimal-wear) [fiZZproject™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fiZZproject%E2%84%A2) $14.49 $6.08 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $14.49 $2.01 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:13 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) [SYBIROOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SYBIROOS) $14.49 $5.34 0.37x 2026-11-10 20:53 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) [SYBIROOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SYBIROOS) $14.49 $17.23 1.19x 2026-11-10 20:53 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) [батраканыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%87) $14.49 $54.17 3.74x 2026-11-10 19:07 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [батраканыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%87) $14.49 $32.03 2.21x 2026-11-10 19:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $14.49 | 93.11% | 42 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.49 | 93.96% | 42 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.3% classified 33.3% mil spec 15.5% extraordinary 0.5% #8847ff 0.5% Mythical 0.9% restricted 14.3% industrial 13.7% Rare 4.2% consumer 4.2% pink 4.2% #4b69ff 4.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.11 on average: an expected loss of $6.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt