---
title: "Sunset case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sunset ($14.72) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.95% from 49 items with odds, observed 127.31% over 20 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Sunset](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Sunset

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset?window=all)

Price · $14.72

Advertised RTP · 93.95% · EV $13.83 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 127.31% · 20 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 16 openings · below min

30 days · 20 openings · below min

since tracking started · 20 openings · below min

15.5% 112.5% 209.5%

**Small sample.** 20 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset?window=7d) | 16 | 107.61% ±91.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset) | 20 | 127.31% ±81.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sunset?window=all) | 20 | 127.31% ±81.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $13.1K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $8,946 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $8,093 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,856 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,043 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $4,251 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,493 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,955 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,949 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,695 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,635 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,502 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 90,909 | $726 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $654 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $642 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 35,714 | $538 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 41,667 | $508 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 16,393 | $416 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 8,403 | $304 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,975 | $235 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 1,815 | $176 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 2,525 | $157 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,019 | $139 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 890 | $120 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 603 | $105 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 308 | $85.46 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-well-worn) | 1 in 225 | $82.87 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-field-tested) | 1 in 270 | $79.03 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 171 | $65.69 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $53.11 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $49.97 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $43.88 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $40.84 | 4.1% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $29.33 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $25.78 | 5.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $22.60 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $19.16 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $17.78 | 7.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Chef d'Escadron Rouchard \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/chef-descadron-rouchard-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 20 | $17.42 | 6.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $13.17 | 6.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $11.59 | 5.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $11.52 | 5.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $8.14 | 4.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.44 | 3.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.41× |
| [Blackwolf \| Sabre agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/blackwolf-sabre) | 1 in 14 | $6.26 | 3.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.41× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.37 | 2.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $4.28 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $3.37 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $2.23 | 1.2% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.23× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/sunset/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=sunset)

[Blackwolf | Sabre agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/blackwolf-sabre) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $14.72 $6.26 0.43x 2026-11-09 20:40 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-minimal-wear) [яконченныйбегите](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%8F%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5) $14.72 $85.46 5.81x 2026-11-06 13:05 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) [яконченныйбегите](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%8F%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5) $14.72 $2.23 0.15x 2026-11-06 13:05 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [яконченныйбегите](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%8F%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5) $14.72 $13.17 0.89x 2026-11-06 13:05 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) [яконченныйбегите](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%8F%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5) $14.72 $2.23 0.15x 2026-11-06 13:05 UTC

[M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $14.72 $29.33 1.99x 2026-11-06 07:26 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $14.72 $40.84 2.77x 2026-11-06 07:26 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $14.72 $4.28 0.29x 2026-11-06 07:26 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $14.72 $6.44 0.44x 2026-11-06 07:26 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $14.72 $40.84 2.77x 2026-11-06 07:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $14.72 | 93.95% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $15.00 | 92.19% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.00 | 94.03% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.6% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 1.2% restricted 8.2% epic 0.2% covert knife 0.3% sunny 0.0% Immortal 0.4% red 3.2% Covert 0.8% Ancient 2.0% pink 38.6% classified 22.8% master 4.9% #d32ee6 7.2% #8847ff 7.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.95 on average: an expected loss of $6.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt