---
title: "Survival case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Survival ($65.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.52% from 29 items with odds, observed 77.38% over 5 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival
rendered: 2026-11-12T02:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Survival](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Survival

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival?window=all)

Price · $65.99

Advertised RTP · 91.52% · EV $60.39 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.38% · 5 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 42.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 5 openings · below min

30 days · 5 openings · below min

since tracking started · 5 openings · below min

40.0% 77.3% 114.5%

**Small sample.** 5 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival?window=7d) | 5 | 77.38% ±36.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival) | 5 | 77.38% ±36.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/survival?window=all) | 5 | 77.38% ±36.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 6,623 | $551 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 611 | $275 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 336 | $204 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 284 | $194 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 321 | $189 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 249 | $185 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $184 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 165 | $147 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $146 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $115 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $110 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $104 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $87.98 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $84.66 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $73.43 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $71.38 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $66.69 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $57.80 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $56.48 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $56.12 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $51.68 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $49.60 | 5.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $49.28 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $48.01 | 5.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $46.44 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $46.10 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $45.09 | 4.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $44.45 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $42.22 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/survival/show`, 11 Nov, 22:43 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=survival)

[★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $65.99 $48.01 0.73x 2026-11-10 11:47 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $65.99 $56.12 0.85x 2026-11-10 11:47 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $65.99 $45.09 0.68x 2026-11-10 11:47 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $65.99 $49.60 0.75x 2026-11-10 11:47 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $65.99 $56.48 0.86x 2026-11-08 04:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $65.99 | 91.52% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $65.99 | 94.00% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% Immortal 12.8% rare 8.1% covert knife 35.7% knifes 0.8% covert 16.1% gold 18.4% sunny 1.6% #ffd700 6.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.52 on average: an expected loss of $8.48 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt