---
title: "Sweet case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sweet ($2.00) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.83% from 42 items with odds, observed 92.74% over 11.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Sweet](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Sweet

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 90.83% · EV $1.82 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.74% · 11.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 91.43% ±2.21 7,393 openings

30 days · 92.74% ±1.78 11.5K openings

since tracking started · 92.74% ±1.78 11.5K openings

88.5% 91.8% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet?window=7d) | 7,393 | 91.43% ±2.21 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet) | 11.5K | 92.74% ±1.78 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweet?window=all) | 11.5K | 92.74% ±1.78 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $220 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 125,000 | $124 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $86.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 23,256 | $59.50 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $43.69 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) | 1 in 1,901 | $22.98 | 0.7% | 6 | 6.1 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 993 | $16.87 | 0.9% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 521 | $13.52 | 1.4% | 27 | 22.1 | 1.22× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 353 | $10.44 | 1.6% | 36 | 32.6 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 202 | $9.13 | 2.5% | 58 | 57.1 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $6.84 | 3.3% | 77 | 100.8 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $6.79 | 3.3% | 112 | 100.1 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $5.86 | 3.5% | 139 | 125.0 | 1.11× |
| [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $5.13 | 5.3% | 221 | 214.5 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $4.70 | 3.4% | 143 | 151.3 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $4.11 | 4.5% | 235 | 227.2 | 1.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $3.29 | 4.7% | 283 | 296.6 | 0.95× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $3.28 | 4.7% | 315 | 300.7 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $2.65 | 6.1% | 472 | 482.2 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.59 | 5.1% | 435 | 408.5 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.33 | 5.5% | 492 | 497.7 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.05 | 6.7% | 708 | 682.1 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Switch Board (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.78 | 5.7% | 656 | 672.3 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.65 | 5.1% | 637 | 644.1 | 0.99× |
| [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.39 | 3.8% | 591 | 565.9 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.33 | 3.9% | 632 | 611.8 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.22 | 3.1% | 494 | 535.6 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.15 | 2.8% | 499 | 509.5 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.04 | 2.5% | 521 | 512.1 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.94 | 1.9% | 474 | 425.0 | 1.12× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.90 | 1.9% | 421 | 436.9 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.60 | 1.0% | 347 | 348.3 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.60 | 1.0% | 308 | 358.4 | 0.86× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.47 | 0.7% | 334 | 330.8 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.47 | 0.9% | 395 | 415.9 | 0.95× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.40 | 0.5% | 279 | 262.2 | 1.06× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-riot-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $0.37 | 0.5% | 248 | 270.3 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.30 | 0.3% | 237 | 232.0 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 161 | 161.8 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $0.18 | 0.2% | 183 | 178.4 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.18 | 0.2% | 175 | 183.7 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 142 | 137.7 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/sweet/show`, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=sweet)

[M249 | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.00 $1.39 0.70x 2026-11-08 20:56 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.00 $1.04 0.52x 2026-11-08 20:56 UTC

[SG 553 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.00 $4.11 2.06x 2026-11-08 20:56 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Switch Board (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-field-tested) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.00 $1.78 0.89x 2026-11-08 20:56 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-factory-new) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.00 $0.60 0.30x 2026-11-08 20:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.00 $0.60 0.30x 2026-11-08 20:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.00 $1.33 0.67x 2026-11-08 20:43 UTC

[Nova | Ghost Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-field-tested) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.00 $2.59 1.30x 2026-11-08 20:43 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.00 $2.65 1.33x 2026-11-08 20:43 UTC

[SG 553 | Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3A%29) $2.00 $1.22 0.61x 2026-11-08 20:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.00 | 90.83% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.00 | 93.13% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% industrial 9.4% sunny 0.0% mil spec 26.6% pink 4.6% classified 0.7% #4b69ff 0.3% uncommon 6.7% #d32ee6 1.1% Industrial Grade 12.1% Industrial 2.0% restricted 5.2% Mil Spec Grade 3.5% blue 4.3% Restricted 5.6% Mythical 7.7% gray 3.7% Consumer Grade 2.9% Common 3.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.83 on average: an expected loss of $9.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt