---
title: "Sweetyfox case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sweetyfox ($2.31) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.91% from 49 items with odds, observed 93.52% over 920 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Sweetyfox](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Sweetyfox

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox?window=all)

Price · $2.31

Advertised RTP · 93.91% · EV $2.17 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.52% · 920 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 94.46% ±13.77 796 openings

30 days · 93.52% ±12.84 920 openings

since tracking started · 93.52% ±12.84 920 openings

-0.5% 105.0% 210.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox?window=24h) | 8 | 72.73% ±137.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox?window=7d) | 796 | 94.46% ±13.8 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox) | 920 | 93.52% ±12.8 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/sweetyfox?window=all) | 920 | 93.52% ±12.8 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 920 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,208 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,050 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,163 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $662 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $372 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $317 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $317 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $304 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $300 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-well-worn) | 1 in 250,000 | $203 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 142,857 | $145 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $134 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $118 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 71,429 | $105 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 55,556 | $97.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $92.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 26,316 | $75.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 21,739 | $69.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 18,868 | $64.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 6,452 | $46.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 2,364 | $33.47 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,077 | $32.81 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 771 | $25.70 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,170 | $23.15 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 1,227 | $22.94 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 902 | $22.01 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 191 | $12.62 | 3.0% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 134 | $9.40 | 3.2% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 113 | $7.44 | 3.0% | 4 | 8.2 | 0.49× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $7.21 | 3.7% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $6.43 | 3.3% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $6.36 | 4.5% | 22 | 14.1 | 1.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $5.27 | 2.8% | 8 | 10.6 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $4.99 | 4.5% | 16 | 18.0 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $4.85 | 4.9% | 23 | 20.0 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $4.69 | 4.4% | 17 | 18.7 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $4.05 | 5.9% | 27 | 29.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $3.94 | 5.3% | 23 | 26.7 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $2.98 | 5.8% | 45 | 38.7 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.91 | 9.5% | 65 | 65.4 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.69 | 7.6% | 57 | 56.3 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $2.17 | 7.1% | 67 | 65.5 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.37 | 4.7% | 79 | 67.8 | 1.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.79 | 2.8% | 72 | 70.7 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.63 | 2.3% | 69 | 71.3 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.45 | 1.6% | 61 | 73.1 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.32 | 1.2% | 67 | 75.1 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.25 | 1.0% | 84 | 76.4 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.20 | 0.8% | 79 | 77.6 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/sweetyfox/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=sweetyfox)

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) [Matrix Laggin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Matrix%20Laggin) $2.31 $5.27 2.28x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [Жук Пчела](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BA%20%D0%9F%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0) $2.31 $0.63 0.27x 2026-11-10 21:38 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3A%29) $2.31 $0.79 0.34x 2026-11-10 21:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3A%29) $2.31 $0.79 0.34x 2026-11-10 21:13 UTC

[MP9 | Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3A%29) $2.31 $0.25 0.11x 2026-11-10 21:13 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-well-worn) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3A%29) $2.31 $1.37 0.59x 2026-11-10 21:13 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3A%29) $2.31 $2.17 0.94x 2026-11-10 21:12 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) [Contex](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Contex) $2.31 $2.17 0.94x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) [ilyaMitrofan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ilyaMitrofan) $2.31 $2.91 1.26x 2026-11-10 15:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [faceit loser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/faceit%20loser) $2.31 $0.63 0.27x 2026-11-10 14:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.31 | 93.91% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.28 | 95.15% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.28 | 94.66% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% #ffd700 0.0% classified 2.4% covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% gold 0.0% uncommon 0.0% #d32ee6 0.1% industrial 1.7% pink 6.9% restricted 27.8% #d32ce6 1.5% Mythical 2.0% Classified 2.9% Mil Spec Grade 6.1% #8847ff 15.4% Rare 16.4% blue 8.2% mil spec 8.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.91 on average: an expected loss of $6.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt