---
title: "Talon case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Talon ($364.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.48% from 30 items with odds, observed 97.46% over 5 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Talon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Talon

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon?window=all)

Price · $364.99

Advertised RTP · 93.48% · EV $341.18 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.46% · 5 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 5 openings · below min

30 days · 5 openings · below min

since tracking started · 5 openings · below min

53.0% 97.5% 142.0%

**Small sample.** 5 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon?window=7d) | 5 | 97.46% ±43.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon) | 5 | 97.46% ±43.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/talon?window=all) | 5 | 97.46% ±43.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 4,926 | $3,126 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 847 | $1,834 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 176 | $1,090 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 188 | $1,004 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $968 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 171 | $904 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 134 | $871 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 153 | $866 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $816 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $663 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $593 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $532 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $464 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $459 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $450 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $446 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $371 | 6.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $307 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $287 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $279 | 4.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $258 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $252 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $248 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $238 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $229 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $220 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $218 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $208 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $204 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $199 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/talon/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $365 $593 1.62x 2026-11-07 19:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=talon)

[★ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $365 $248 0.68x 2026-11-07 19:13 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $365 $371 1.02x 2026-11-07 19:13 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $365 $287 0.79x 2026-11-07 19:13 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $365 $279 0.76x 2026-11-07 19:13 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $365 $593 1.62x 2026-11-07 19:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $365 | 93.48% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $365 | 94.00% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 33.0% covert knife 40.5% Covert 17.3% epic 7.2% knifes 2.1% best hit $593 (1.62x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.48 on average: an expected loss of $6.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt