---
title: "Tatsumaki case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tatsumaki ($5.02) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.82% from 49 items with odds, observed 97.10% over 82 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Tatsumaki](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Tatsumaki

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki?window=all)

Price · $5.02

Advertised RTP · 93.82% · EV $4.71 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.10% · 82 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 55 openings · below min

7 days · 66 openings · below min

30 days · 82 openings · below min

since tracking started · 82 openings · below min

53.5% 99.5% 145.5%

**Small sample.** 82 openings and 17.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki?window=24h) | 55 | 101.85% ±42.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki?window=7d) | 66 | 93.19% ±39.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki) | 82 | 97.10% ±35.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tatsumaki?window=all) | 82 | 97.10% ±35.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,132 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,218 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,216 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,152 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,036 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $510 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $449 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $409 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $405 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 125,000 | $366 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 83,333 | $290 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $226 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $204 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $170 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18,868 | $154 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 7,463 | $107 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 1 in 6,944 | $102 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,984 | $85.79 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,985 | $76.27 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 1,880 | $69.71 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 4,762 | $61.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 957 | $51.26 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 996 | $47.92 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-factory-new) | 1 in 828 | $45.95 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $35.02 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) | 1 in 287 | $33.03 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 251 | $28.59 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 305 | $28.46 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $19.10 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $17.93 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $12.05 | 4.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $11.28 | 5.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $8.26 | 6.2% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $7.73 | 9.9% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $7.21 | 6.9% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.35× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $5.06 | 8.1% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $4.85 | 8.0% | 10 | 6.4 | 1.57× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.62 | 7.6% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.26× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $4.57 | 5.7% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $3.46 | 5.4% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× |
| [Souvenir PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-chemical-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $1.86 | 2.2% | 10 | 4.6 | 2.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.64 | 2.0% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.47 | 1.7% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.52× |
| [Sticker \| Imperial Esports (Holo) \| Rio 2022 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-imperial-esports-holo-rio-2022) | 1 in 21 | $1.08 | 1.1% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.64 | 0.6% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.63 | 0.6% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.49 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.41 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.26 | 0.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.73× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/tatsumaki/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=tatsumaki)

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) [u1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/u1) $5.02 $1.47 0.29x 2026-11-10 20:27 UTC

[Souvenir PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-chemical-green-battle-scarred) [u1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/u1) $5.02 $1.86 0.37x 2026-11-10 20:26 UTC

[MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) [u1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/u1) $5.02 $1.64 0.33x 2026-11-10 20:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) [u1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/u1) $5.02 $4.85 0.97x 2026-11-10 20:26 UTC

[Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) [u1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/u1) $5.02 $7.73 1.54x 2026-11-10 20:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $5.02 $0.64 0.13x 2026-11-10 19:13 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $5.02 $7.21 1.44x 2026-11-10 19:13 UTC

[XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $5.02 $5.06 1.01x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC

[Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $5.02 $4.57 0.91x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC

[Souvenir PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-chemical-green-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $5.02 $1.86 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.02 | 93.82% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.14 | 91.63% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.14 | 93.92% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.5% classified 15.1% gold 0.0% restricted 13.7% covert knife 0.0% Mythical 7.4% industrial 0.1% rare 0.1% mil spec 0.3% Rare 9.5% uncommon 6.0% pink 7.7% consumer 5.9% Industrial Grade 5.7% #8847ff 10.2% blue 9.6% Legendary 4.8% #4b69ff 3.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.82 on average: an expected loss of $6.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt