---
title: "Tayncase case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tayncase ($68.80) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 49 items with odds, observed 87.51% over 20 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Tayncase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Tayncase

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase?window=all)

Price · $68.80

Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $64.67 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.51% · 20 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 20 openings · below min

30 days · 20 openings · below min

since tracking started · 20 openings · below min

45.5% 87.5% 129.5%

**Small sample.** 20 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase?window=7d) | 20 | 87.51% ±41.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase) | 20 | 87.51% ±41.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tayncase?window=all) | 20 | 87.51% ±41.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250,000 | $5,286 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142,857 | $4,251 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $3,252 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 45,455 | $2,205 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41,667 | $2,050 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,742 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 31,250 | $1,513 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 18,182 | $1,485 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 16,949 | $1,265 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 7,194 | $1,067 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,252 | $642 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,692 | $640 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,376 | $590 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,437 | $529 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 1,279 | $489 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 477 | $380 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 687 | $372 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 404 | $332 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 365 | $328 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 414 | $317 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 246 | $222 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 234 | $220 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $213 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $186 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $179 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $179 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $176 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 191 | $170 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $140 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $139 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $136 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $133 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $120 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $114 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $109 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $103 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $102 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $99.81 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $99.64 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $78.32 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $76.97 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $59.83 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $56.96 | 4.3% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $53.38 | 4.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $53.19 | 5.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $38.73 | 5.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 12.2% | $35.49 | 6.7% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 13.2% | $34.99 | 7.2% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 19.1% | $27.42 | 8.1% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.78× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/tayncase/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=tayncase)

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [raccoon\_legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/raccoon_legend) $70.78 $56.96 0.80x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [raccoon\_legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/raccoon_legend) $70.78 $38.73 0.55x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC

[MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) [raccoon\_legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/raccoon_legend) $70.78 $59.83 0.85x 2026-11-05 16:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) [raccoon\_legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/raccoon_legend) $70.78 $35.49 0.50x 2026-11-05 16:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) [raccoon\_legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/raccoon_legend) $70.78 $35.49 0.50x 2026-11-05 16:23 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $70.78 $38.73 0.55x 2026-11-04 17:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $70.78 $53.38 0.75x 2026-11-04 17:32 UTC

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $70.78 $179 2.52x 2026-11-04 17:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $70.78 $53.38 0.75x 2026-11-04 17:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $70.78 $56.96 0.80x 2026-11-04 17:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $68.80 | 93.99% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $70.78 | 91.36% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $70.78 | 93.58% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 33.8% legendary 0.0% red 36.9% Ancient 18.3% epic 1.1% rare 1.3% Covert 2.5% uncommon 6.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt