---
title: "Tenderlyxfruktozka case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tenderlyxfruktozka ($0.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.80% from 42 items with odds, observed 95.64% over 7,643 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka
rendered: 2026-11-12T03:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Tenderlyxfruktozka](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Tenderlyxfruktozka

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka?window=all)

Price · $0.99

Advertised RTP · 93.80% · EV $0.93 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.64% · 7,643 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.82% ±5.62 640 openings

7 days · 95.36% ±2.13 4,446 openings

30 days · 95.64% ±1.64 7,643 openings

since tracking started · 95.64% ±1.64 7,643 openings

85.5% 91.8% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka?window=24h) | 640 | 91.82% ±5.62 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka?window=7d) | 4,446 | 95.36% ±2.13 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka) | 7,643 | 95.64% ±1.64 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tenderlyxfruktozka?window=all) | 7,643 | 95.64% ±1.64 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,645 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $49.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $46.59 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $30.45 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $21.56 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 41,667 | $17.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $13.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 8,772 | $11.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,294 | $6.89 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.50× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 655 | $6.84 | 1.1% | 17 | 11.7 | 1.46× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,346 | $6.14 | 0.5% | 2 | 5.7 | 0.35× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 328 | $4.11 | 1.3% | 32 | 23.3 | 1.37× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 255 | $3.44 | 1.5% | 29 | 29.9 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 106 | $2.65 | 2.7% | 65 | 72.3 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $2.60 | 2.0% | 69 | 55.6 | 1.24× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $1.87 | 4.9% | 173 | 184.3 | 0.94× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $1.86 | 3.7% | 131 | 140.4 | 0.93× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $1.66 | 5.3% | 220 | 227.3 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1.61 | 4.8% | 237 | 213.7 | 1.11× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.51 | 8.0% | 392 | 374.8 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.41 | 6.2% | 327 | 311.8 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.30 | 7.7% | 436 | 421.4 | 1.03× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.28 | 6.2% | 339 | 341.3 | 0.99× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.18 | 7.4% | 431 | 447.8 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.17 | 8.2% | 551 | 496.9 | 1.11× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.09 | 6.6% | 405 | 429.9 | 0.94× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.87 | 2.8% | 226 | 226.6 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.76 | 2.4% | 221 | 226.6 | 0.98× |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.75 | 2.4% | 254 | 226.6 | 1.12× |
| [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.62 | 2.0% | 225 | 226.6 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.48 | 1.5% | 225 | 226.6 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.45 | 1.4% | 244 | 226.6 | 1.08× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.43 | 1.4% | 206 | 226.6 | 0.91× |
| [P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coral-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.41 | 1.3% | 220 | 226.6 | 0.97× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.33 | 1.1% | 216 | 226.6 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.30 | 1.0% | 225 | 226.6 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.28 | 0.9% | 232 | 226.6 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.20 | 0.6% | 202 | 226.6 | 0.89× |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.18 | 0.6% | 217 | 226.6 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.17 | 0.5% | 227 | 226.6 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.16 | 0.5% | 206 | 226.6 | 0.91× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.14 | 0.4% | 209 | 226.8 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.13 | 0.4% | 229 | 226.6 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/tenderlyxfruktozka/show`, 11 Nov, 22:43 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=tenderlyxfruktozka)

[AUG | Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-minimal-wear) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $0.99 $0.43 0.43x 2026-11-12 03:34 UTC

[MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $0.99 $0.18 0.18x 2026-11-12 03:34 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $0.99 $0.87 0.88x 2026-11-12 03:34 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $0.99 $0.87 0.88x 2026-11-12 03:34 UTC

[MAG-7 | Popdog (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-factory-new) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $0.99 $0.75 0.76x 2026-11-12 03:34 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [Nimp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nimp) $0.99 $0.87 0.88x 2026-11-12 03:15 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [Nimp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nimp) $0.99 $0.87 0.88x 2026-11-12 03:15 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Nimp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nimp) $0.99 $1.09 1.10x 2026-11-12 03:15 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) [Nimp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nimp) $0.99 $1.66 1.68x 2026-11-12 03:15 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) [Nimp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nimp) $0.99 $1.66 1.68x 2026-11-12 03:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.99 | 93.80% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.99 | 95.56% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.0% 2 3.0% Immortal 0.0% classified 5.6% #4b69ff 4.2% Mythical 8.5% consumer 0.0% restricted 2.5% Industrial 0.3% industrial 6.9% #8847ff 1.8% violet 11.8% mil spec 8.7% Rare 13.8% Mil Spec Grade 4.1% milspec 11.0% blue 5.9% #5e98d9 5.9% Uncommon 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.80 on average: an expected loss of $6.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt