---
title: "Thisisfine case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Thisisfine ($0.39) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.80% from 46 items with odds, observed 95.28% over 12.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Thisisfine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Thisisfine

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine?window=all)

Price · $0.39

Advertised RTP · 93.80% · EV $0.37 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.28% · 12.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.63% ±4.98 2,725 openings

7 days · 95.21% ±2.35 12.3K openings

30 days · 95.28% ±2.31 12.7K openings

since tracking started · 95.28% ±2.31 12.7K openings

92.0% 98.3% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine?window=24h) | 2,725 | 98.63% ±4.98 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine?window=7d) | 12.3K | 95.21% ±2.35 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine) | 12.7K | 95.28% ±2.31 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/thisisfine?window=all) | 12.7K | 95.28% ±2.31 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200,000 | $38.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $32.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 111,111 | $23.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76,923 | $19.75 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52,632 | $15.03 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 31,250 | $12.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26,316 | $11.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 21,739 | $11.34 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,042 | $7.71 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.22× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 9,615 | $7.44 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,774 | $6.82 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,173 | $6.59 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 4,149 | $6.04 | 0.4% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.64× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 3,922 | $5.85 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 2,506 | $5.09 | 0.6% | 9 | 5.1 | 1.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,793 | $5.06 | 0.5% | 9 | 4.5 | 1.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,136 | $3.97 | 1.0% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,202 | $3.83 | 0.9% | 7 | 10.5 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 997 | $3.57 | 1.0% | 19 | 12.7 | 1.50× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 797 | $3.13 | 1.1% | 24 | 15.9 | 1.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 746 | $2.91 | 1.1% | 12 | 17.0 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 528 | $2.23 | 1.2% | 33 | 24.0 | 1.38× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) | 1 in 305 | $2.10 | 1.9% | 41 | 41.5 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $1.90 | 2.9% | 68 | 69.7 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $1.41 | 3.5% | 98 | 115.4 | 0.85× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-well-worn) | 1 in 113 | $1.37 | 3.3% | 123 | 112.5 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $1.35 | 2.9% | 110 | 101.0 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $1.15 | 3.2% | 138 | 129.7 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $1.04 | 3.0% | 147 | 133.3 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $0.97 | 2.8% | 123 | 135.2 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.85 | 3.4% | 189 | 183.5 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.82 | 3.7% | 189 | 211.3 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $0.75 | 4.4% | 267 | 273.7 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $0.72 | 4.3% | 245 | 273.7 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.48 | 6.3% | 610 | 606.7 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.35 | 6.1% | 757 | 801.0 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.32 | 5.5% | 875 | 794.9 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.30 | 5.4% | 768 | 827.8 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.26 | 4.6% | 812 | 827.8 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.25 | 4.5% | 831 | 827.8 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.21 | 4.2% | 975 | 923.2 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.21 | 4.0% | 861 | 878.6 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.20 | 4.0% | 909 | 923.2 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.10 | 2.5% | 1,227 | 1165.6 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.10 | 2.2% | 1,002 | 1020.4 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.06 | 1.5% | 1,154 | 1165.6 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/thisisfine/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $19.75 50.64x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=thisisfine)

[Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $0.10 0.26x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-battle-scarred) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $0.25 0.64x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Tilted (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-well-worn) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $0.21 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $1.04 2.67x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-factory-new) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $0.26 0.67x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-well-worn) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $1.37 3.51x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $0.21 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[AUG | Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $0.32 0.82x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $1.04 2.67x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-factory-new) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.39 $0.26 0.67x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.39 | 93.80% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.39 | 95.77% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 9.2% 3 6.3% covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% violet 1.4% pink 1.4% classified 0.0% uncommon 0.0% restricted 8.7% Mythical 0.8% #8847ff 1.0% mil spec 9.7% Uncommon 18.6% Mil Spec Grade 6.3% #4b69ff 20.4% blueLight 6.9% industrial 9.2% best hit $19.75 (50.64x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.80 on average: an expected loss of $6.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt