--- title: "Token case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Token ($1.15) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.42% from 25 items with odds, observed 93.99% over 1,508 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Token](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Token A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token?window=all) Price · $1.15 Advertised RTP · 93.42% · EV $1.07 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.99% · 1,508 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 95.13% ±4.68 1,005 openings 30 days · 93.99% ±3.82 1,508 openings since tracking started · 93.99% ±3.82 1,508 openings 89.5% 95.0% 100.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token?window=7d) | 1,005 | 95.13% ±4.68 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token) | 1,508 | 93.99% ±3.82 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/token?window=all) | 1,508 | 93.99% ±3.82 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,509 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27,027 | $68.48 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 4,425 | $21.14 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,294 | $15.79 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $3.77 | 6.2% | 35 | 26.5 | 1.32× | | [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $2.53 | 5.1% | 39 | 32.8 | 1.19× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $1.84 | 5.7% | 37 | 50.2 | 0.74× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.83 | 7.1% | 69 | 62.5 | 1.10× | | [Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-bronze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $1.83 | 4.8% | 40 | 42.2 | 0.95× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.82 | 7.0% | 70 | 62.5 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $1.64 | 6.8% | 57 | 67.6 | 0.84× | | [AUG \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.44 | 6.4% | 67 | 72.0 | 0.93× | | [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1.39 | 8.0% | 92 | 93.7 | 0.98× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.05 | 7.3% | 133 | 112.2 | 1.19× | | [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.99 | 6.2% | 102 | 102.0 | 1.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.91 | 3.9% | 69 | 68.9 | 1.00× | | [M249 \| Aztec (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.84 | 5.5% | 95 | 106.3 | 0.89× | | [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.72 | 4.0% | 93 | 89.6 | 1.04× | | [MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.68 | 3.7% | 80 | 88.2 | 0.91× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.56 | 2.9% | 92 | 84.0 | 1.09× | | [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.49 | 2.1% | 67 | 68.9 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Imperial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 1.5% | 51 | 60.4 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 1.5% | 65 | 60.4 | 1.08× | | [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.35 | 1.2% | 59 | 56.8 | 1.04× | | [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.30 | 0.9% | 52 | 49.1 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-amber-slipstream-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.28 | 0.9% | 43 | 51.1 | 0.84× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/token/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=token) [P2000 | Imperial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-minimal-wear) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $1.15 $0.41 0.36x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [Tec-9 | Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-field-tested) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $1.15 $3.77 3.28x 2026-11-09 13:33 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $1.15 $0.56 0.49x 2026-11-09 13:33 UTC [M249 | Aztec (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-minimal-wear) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $1.15 $0.84 0.73x 2026-11-09 13:33 UTC [Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $1.15 $1.39 1.21x 2026-11-09 13:33 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $1.15 $1.05 0.91x 2026-11-09 13:33 UTC [MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-battle-scarred) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $1.15 $0.68 0.59x 2026-11-09 13:33 UTC [P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $1.15 $0.72 0.63x 2026-11-09 13:33 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $1.15 $1.05 0.91x 2026-11-09 13:33 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [M4a4legasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/M4a4legasy) $1.15 $0.56 0.49x 2026-11-09 13:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.15 | 93.42% | 25 | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.19 | 90.28% | 25 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.19 | 91.82% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 4.6% extraordinary 0.0% classified 7.5% Mil Spec Grade 5.9% mil spec 5.5% #8847ff 7.7% restricted 14.5% Rare 10.9% Uncommon 2.8% Mythical 4.5% #4b69ff 11.0% uncommon 10.5% blue 11.3% milspec 3.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.42 on average: an expected loss of $6.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt