---
title: "Tokyoghoul case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tokyoghoul ($14.64) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.97% from 42 items with odds, observed 71.82% over 8 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Tokyoghoul](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Tokyoghoul

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul?window=all)

Price · $14.64

Advertised RTP · 93.97% · EV $13.76 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.82% · 8 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 5 openings · below min

30 days · 8 openings · below min

since tracking started · 8 openings · below min

-0.5% 107.8% 216.0%

**Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul?window=7d) | 5 | 92.27% ±122.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul) | 8 | 71.82% ±97.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/tokyoghoul?window=all) | 8 | 71.82% ±97.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,780 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,745 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,916 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,732 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,649 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $1,284 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $1,107 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90,909 | $871 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47,619 | $689 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 34,483 | $591 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) | 1 in 29,412 | $537 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-well-worn) | 1 in 13,514 | $404 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-flowers-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,346 | $377 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,907 | $233 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,660 | $218 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-field-tested) | 1 in 1,312 | $165 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 784 | $133 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 343 | $95.47 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $62.51 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $52.79 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $49.19 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $46.29 | 4.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $33.90 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $30.44 | 11.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $25.78 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $20.93 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $17.79 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $14.88 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $11.62 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $11.09 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $7.50 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.91 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $6.39 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.46 | 1.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.24 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $4.62 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $2.91 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $2.78 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $2.77 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $2.61 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $2.54 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ocular-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $1.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/tokyoghoul/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=tokyoghoul)

[FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $14.64 $46.29 3.16x 2026-11-09 01:27 UTC

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $14.64 $5.46 0.37x 2026-11-09 01:27 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $14.10 $4.62 0.33x 2026-11-05 06:01 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-well-worn) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $14.10 $2.77 0.20x 2026-11-05 06:01 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-factory-new) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $14.10 $6.91 0.49x 2026-11-04 20:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $14.64 | 93.97% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $14.10 | 97.57% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.10 | 96.61% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% contraband 0.0% epic 0.0% legendary 0.0% classified 4.2% Immortal 0.1% gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% rare 0.3% covert knife 0.8% red 6.6% Covert 1.3% uncommon 7.4% restricted 29.6% Legendary 7.8% mil spec 6.9% #d32ee6 6.2% industrial 5.7% pink 12.7% violet 3.5% #8847ff 6.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.97 on average: an expected loss of $6.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt