---
title: "Train case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Train ($0.56) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.46% from 23 items with odds, observed 96.86% over 232 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Train](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Train

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train?window=all)

Price · $0.56

Advertised RTP · 93.46% · EV $0.52 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.86% · 232 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 19 openings · below min

7 days · 96.86% ±11.74 232 openings

30 days · 96.86% ±11.74 232 openings

since tracking started · 96.86% ±11.74 232 openings

46.0% 87.8% 129.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train?window=24h) | 19 | 87.88% ±41.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train?window=7d) | 232 | 96.86% ±11.7 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train) | 232 | 96.86% ±11.7 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train?window=all) | 232 | 96.86% ±11.7 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 338 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 7,463 | $35.27 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $0.99 | 6.4% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.91 | 9.4% | 28 | 18.3 | 1.53× |
| [UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.89 | 10.9% | 20 | 21.6 | 0.92× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.89 | 8.3% | 15 | 16.6 | 0.91× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.86 | 8.2% | 14 | 16.8 | 0.83× |
| [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.84 | 8.4% | 14 | 17.7 | 0.79× |
| [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.81 | 8.4% | 23 | 18.3 | 1.26× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.76 | 8.7% | 15 | 20.3 | 0.74× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.56 | 8.9% | 29 | 28.1 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.40 | 5.6% | 21 | 24.7 | 0.85× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.33 | 4.0% | 28 | 21.2 | 1.32× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.28 | 2.6% | 14 | 16.5 | 0.85× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.26 | 2.5% | 13 | 17.0 | 0.76× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.20 | 1.6% | 12 | 14.5 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.16 | 1.0% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.16 | 1.3% | 18 | 14.0 | 1.29× |
| [P90 \| Ash Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.14 | 0.9% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.13 | 0.7% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.10 | 0.5% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.15× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $0.09 | 0.4% | 3 | 8.4 | 0.36× |
| [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $0.08 | 0.4% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.42× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.18× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/train/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=train)

[P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-factory-new) [Леонель Месик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.56 $0.14 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $0.56 $0.14 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-factory-new) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.56 $0.99 1.77x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.56 $0.10 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.56 $0.10 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.56 $0.86 1.54x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) [wwwwwwwwwwww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/wwwwwwwwwwww) $0.56 $0.28 0.50x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $0.56 $0.76 1.36x 2026-11-11 09:08 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.56 $0.89 1.59x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-factory-new) [nkola6009\_CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/nkola6009_CS2.ME) $0.56 $0.89 1.59x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.56 | 93.46% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.56 | 94.00% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 9.7% 2 7.0% industrial 17.9% consumer 20.7% Consumer Grade 10.4% milspec 8.3% violet 7.3% Rare 4.9% restricted 5.0% Uncommon 6.4% light blue 2.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.46 on average: an expected loss of $6.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt