--- title: "Train 2021 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Train 2021 ($8.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.69% from 38 items with odds, observed 105.52% over 131 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Train 2021](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Train 2021 A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021?window=all) Price · $8.99 Advertised RTP · 91.69% · EV $8.24 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.52% · 131 openings, sample method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 131 openings · below min 30 days · 131 openings · below min since tracking started · 131 openings · below min 84.0% 105.5% 127.0% **Small sample.** 131 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021?window=7d) | 131 | 105.52% ±20.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021) | 131 | 105.52% ±20.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/train2021?window=all) | 131 | 105.52% ±20.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 131 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 90,909 | $380 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $351 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $288 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 23,810 | $255 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 19,608 | $196 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,762 | $108 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $93.15 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 855 | $70.14 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-factory-new) | 1 in 463 | $61.71 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 488 | $59.80 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-minimal-wear) | 1 in 160 | $41.23 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $38.13 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $32.44 | 3.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $31.56 | 3.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.62× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $29.06 | 3.5% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.34× | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $27.85 | 3.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $17.64 | 5.4% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $14.43 | 6.1% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $13.39 | 7.9% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.63× | | [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $10.41 | 8.0% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.09× | | [Nova \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $10.26 | 10.1% | 14 | 10.6 | 1.32× | | [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $9.19 | 8.5% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.80× | | [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $7.33 | 3.4% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $7.22 | 3.3% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× | | [Nova \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $6.29 | 2.9% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $5.76 | 2.7% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $5.72 | 2.6% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.80× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $4.88 | 2.3% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× | | [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $3.14 | 1.5% | 10 | 5.0 | 2.00× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.70 | 1.3% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× | | [AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $2.60 | 1.2% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $2.59 | 1.2% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.32 | 1.1% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× | | [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.00 | 0.9% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.79 | 0.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.71 | 0.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.41 | 0.7% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.39 | 0.6% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/train2021/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=train2021) [P2000 | Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) [Soul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Soul) $8.99 $5.72 0.64x 2026-11-09 07:14 UTC [AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [хуй врагам Кубани](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%85%D1%83%D0%B9%20%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8) $8.99 $1.71 0.19x 2026-11-08 22:27 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) [хуй врагам Кубани](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%85%D1%83%D0%B9%20%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8) $8.99 $9.19 1.02x 2026-11-08 22:27 UTC [Nova | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [хуй врагам Кубани](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%85%D1%83%D0%B9%20%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8) $8.99 $6.29 0.70x 2026-11-08 22:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) [хуй врагам Кубани](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%85%D1%83%D0%B9%20%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8) $8.99 $10.41 1.16x 2026-11-08 22:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) [ProstoKot000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ProstoKot000) $8.99 $10.41 1.16x 2026-11-06 14:54 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) [PL4YERONE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/PL4YERONE) $8.99 $3.36 0.37x 2026-11-05 21:18 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) [PL4YERONE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/PL4YERONE) $8.99 $5.00 0.56x 2026-11-05 21:18 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) [PL4YERONE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/PL4YERONE) $8.99 $5.00 0.56x 2026-11-05 21:18 UTC [P2000 | Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) [PL4YERONE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/PL4YERONE) $8.99 $5.75 0.64x 2026-11-05 21:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $8.99 | 91.69% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $8.99 | 94.00% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.3% #eb4b4b 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.1% covert 0.0% #d32ee6 1.6% Restricted 8.6% restricted 14.5% #8847ff 12.2% Rare 10.1% blue 19.0% Mythical 3.8% violet 3.8% Mil Spec Grade 7.6% mil spec 3.8% #4b69ff 11.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.69 on average: an expected loss of $8.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt